As the earth's climate continues to warm, researchers predict that wild animals will be forced to relocate their habitats, which could increase the risk of a viral jump to humans that could lead to the next Pandemic.
The link between climate change and viral transmission is described by an international research team led by scientists at Georgetown University.
The first comprehensive assessment of how climate change will restructure the global mammals was conducted by the scientists. The journeys that species will undertake as they follow their habitats into new areas are the focus of the work. They will share thousands of viruses when they encounter other mammals for the first time.
They say these shifts make it harder to track and make it easier for viruses to jump across species into humans.
Colin Carlson is an assistant research professor at the Center for Global Health Science and Security at Georgetown University Medical Center. Markets aren't special anymore, in a changing climate that will be the reality just about everywhere.
There is concern that animal habitats will move disproportionately in the same places as human settlements. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may not be enough to stop the unfolding of this process in the 1.2 degrees warmer world.
The impact rising temperatures will have on bats, which account for the majority of novel viral sharing, is an important finding. Their ability to fly will allow them to travel long distances. The greatest impacts are projected in southeast Asia, a global hotspot of bat diversity, because of their central role in viral emergence.
Carlson said that their simulations have taken them by surprise. The models always lead us to these conclusions after we double-check the results with different data and different assumptions. It is a stunning example of how well we can predict the future if we try.
The authors say that the impacts on human health could be stunning as the viruses jump between host species.
The mechanism adds yet another layer to how climate change will threaten human and animal health, according to the study.
It is unclear how these new viruses will affect the species involved, but it is likely that many of them will translate to new risks for the environment.
The study suggests that climate change will be the biggest risk factor for disease emergence. The authors propose that the solution is to pair wildlife disease detection with real-time studies of environmental change.
Carlson says that when a Brazilian free-tailed bat makes it all the way to Appalachia, we should be invested in knowing what viruses are nearby.
Carlson says we are closer to predicting and preventing the next epidemic than ever.
The COVID-19 pandemic, and the previous spread of other diseases, show how a Viruses jumping from animals to humans can have massive effects. Sam Scheiner, a program director with the U.S. National Science Foundation, said that to predict their jump to humans, we need to know about their spread among other animals.
More information: Colin Carlson, Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk, Nature (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w. www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w Journal information: Nature Citation: New study finds climate change could spark the next pandemic (2022, April 28) retrieved 28 April 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-04-climate-pandemic.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.
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