Russia launched rockets at five railway facilities used to deliver critical supplies into the country on Monday, after promising to attack U.S. and allied weapons shipment points and fuel depots in Ukraine. Billions of heavy weapons systems, tanks and armored vehicles are expected to arrive in Ukraine in the coming weeks as the country faces off against a full-scale Russian assault in Donbas. Hundreds of millions of dollars in military aid were pledged by the U.S. secretaries of State and Defense during a meeting with top Ukrainian officials on Monday. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Poland Monday that they want to see Russia weakened to the point that it can't do the things it has done in invading Ukraine.Politico
Over the past two weeks, the Pentagon has rushed in more than $1 billion worth of heavy weaponry and other aid by sea and air. President Joe Biden approved another $800 million weapons package on Thursday. Austin said Monday that the howitzers were already showing up in the country.
He said that it was unimaginable speed.
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said last week that the Department of Defense gave Ukraine enough weapons to equip five battalions. He said that the U.S. military has begun training several dozen Ukrainian fighters on the new equipment outside of Ukraine.
In the new phase of the conflict, protecting critical supply lines will be important.
Mick Mulroy, a former top Pentagon official and retired CIA paramilitary officer, said that the fight for Donbas would be won or lost on the basis of weapons, equipment and ammunition.
Russia has been threatening the supply lines since it invaded Ukraine.
Both Russia and Ukraine are rushing to replenish their supplies in the east of the country, and western officials are pushing their governments to provide more aid to the country.
In the early stages of the war, the Russians were able to move into the country themselves, but in the last few months, the Ukrainians have been able to take in a lot of new Western equipment. The moving of tanks and large pieces over the Polish border without attracting Russian attention is more complex than moving truckloads of smaller missiles, which dominated the donations in the early days of the war.
It will be difficult for Russia to hit those new, larger shipments if they come by rail and road. Russia's pilots are wary of testing Ukraine's air defenses, and the Kremlin will need to conserve some of its long-range precision weapons.
When it comes to weapons such as Kalibr and Iskander precision missiles, Russia's stockpiles aren't necessarily large.
Russia has not been effective at disrupting the supply lines because it is not very good at dynamic targeting, hitting a moving object rather than a stationary target.
The fighting in the coming days and weeks will likely be different from the small-unit battles that took place in the opening weeks of the war.
The 90 howitzers supplied by the U.S., alongside newly arrived Canadian howitzers and French Caesar mobile 155mm cannon systems on the way, will give Ukrainian forces the ability to match.
The Czech Republic has sent its own Soviet-era tanks in recent weeks, and on Monday the Polish Prime Minister confirmed that his country had also sent T-72 tanks to Ukraine.
While the Russian long-range strikes into western Ukraine are expanding the zone of conflict, Ukrainian helicopters last month also conducted a risky operation into Russia, targeting an oil depot over the border in Belgorod. There were several explosions on Sunday night in the Russian city of Bryansk, close to the Ukrainian border. There have been unexplained fires at Russian military research facilities over the past week.
British intelligence assesses that Russia has made minor advances in Ukraine's east in the last few days, but without sufficient logistical and combat support.
Ben Wallace, Britain's defense chief, said Monday that Britain will send a small number of Stormer armored vehicles to Ukraine. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced Friday that there would be a shipment of Challenger 2 tanks.
According to the U.K. Ministry of Defence, Russia has lost 15,000 personnel, over 2,000 armored vehicles, and more than 60 helicopter and fighter jets since the conflict began. He said that over 25% of the tactical battalion groups Russian committed to the fight have beenrendered not combat effective.
Wallace said that Russia has failed in nearly all of its objectives.
Russia's defence ministry said its high-precision missiles destroyed six facilities used to deliver foreign weapons to Ukrainian forces. Russia was trying to disrupt arms supplies from Western allies, according to the military of Ukraine.
After a train journey from Poland, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with the Ukrainian President and other top officials. The U.S. delegation and the leaders of Ukraine met for three hours.
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