Jeremy Fowler talked about what Minnesota and Green Bay are looking for. (1:45)
Teams have to read the room in order to draft well. It doesn't matter how well front offices deal with opponents while on the clock. They need to know when players come off the board so they don't miss out on the ones they want or take a player before they need to.
The Draft Day Predictor is a statistical tool that can be used to pick out prospects in the draft. It uses mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to answer questions about how things could play out. It gives a percentage chance of each prospect being available, and being selected, at each draft slot, which leads to a likely range of picks in which he could theoretically come off the board.
The Draft Day Predictor is a publicly available tool. It will update on Thursday morning as mock drafts come in and then live during the draft on Thursday night. The Draft Day Predictor serves as our crystal ball, but for now, let's break down some of the storylines of the draft. This tool does not operate in certainties because there are no certainties when it comes to decision-making. We will use probabilities to guide us through eight big questions.
The Draft Day Predictor can be used.
There is a chance that one of the two quarterbacks will be there for the New Orleans Saints at No. 16. They probably can afford to sit tight even though it would make for an uncomfortable wait. Probably.
There is a 38% chance that at least one will be on the board by the time No. 20 comes around. It is a question of whether Pittsburgh is feeling lucky and how much it is willing to pay for the assurance of getting one of those two quarterbacks.
Each team has their eyes set on only one of those quarterbacks. Since the Detroit Lions are a potential landing spot for him at No. 2, there is no safe spot to trade up to. The Draft Day Predictor gives the Liberty QB a 32% chance to still be on the board for the Saints at No. 16 and a 16% chance to still be there at pick 20.
If either team is willing to make a move up to No. 10 in a deal with the New York Jets, there is a 53% chance that he will make it there. It would require the Lions, Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks to all pass on him, and no other team trading into the top 10 to get him. The Washington Commanders and the Texans would fall behind the teams.
The Draft Day Predictor thinks there is a good chance that he goes to Carolina at No. 6. If he makes it to the Saints, Pittsburgh might be wise to move ahead of New Orleans if they target him. According to the Draft Day Predictor, not trading up gives the Steelers a 26% chance of getting Pickett.
The Packers have the 22nd pick, but none of the top four wide receiver are there. The Packers might be able to land the Arkansas player by sitting still, but he is only marginally better than a coin flip. The best hope of the five pass-catchings is Burks, and there is only an 18% chance he goes to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs will need to make a move if either team has their eyes on one of the first three wideouts. How far up the board is it? The Draft Day Predictor thinks Wilson will go in the top 10. Even though London should go later, there is only a 27% chance he will still be available.
What about Williams? He could go as high as the Jets, but if the Packers or Chiefs move up to No. 14, he'd have a good chance of making it there. The Packers/Chiefs would be ahead of the Eagles and Saints at the top of the draft order.
To have a better than 50% chance that those players would still be on the board, Kansas City would need to pick Nos. 18 or 22.
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky have differing levels of interest in the upcoming draft picks.
No. The Draft Day Predictor does not work in absolutes. The model shows that there is a 99% chance that the Jets will pick him at No. 4.
The reality is that the fifth-best prospect in the draft is usually long gone in mock drafts by the time the Jets come around the 10th pick. The real question is whether the Cincinnati corner makes it to the Jets at No. 4. There is only a SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA SALVAGEDATA
The floor is likely to be No. 9 for both NC State's Ikem Ekwonu and Alabama's Evan Neal. If a quarterback goes in the top 10 and a team like the New York Giants or Falcons selects someone like Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton or LSU defensive back Derek Stingley Jr., they could slide that far.
Charles Cross is from Mississippi State. He has a range that lasts all the way to the 20s. There is an 81% chance he will be off the board in the first 17 picks.
The Draft Day Predictor believes that Georgia's Travon Walker is a top-three pick. It sees him going at No. 5. According to the model, Kayvon Thibodeaux has a 98% chance of going in the top seven picks.
After Thibodeaux ends, the range starts by Jermaine Johnson II. There is an 83% chance that he will be off the board by pick No. 15.
After the Super Bowl, Cincinnati spent a lot of money in free agency to make its offensive line less of a need. There may be some interior linemen on the board for the Bengal when they are on the clock.
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