Three Ukrainian army brigades fighting Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine made a fatal mistake eight years ago. They put their tanks and trucks to sleep.
Russian drones and eavesdroppers pinpointed the command post.
The Russians and the Ukrainians are making the same mistake. In the two months since Russia widened its war on Ukraine, Kyiv has located and destroyed no fewer than 31 Russian command and communications posts.
Russian generals have died in combat since Russia attacked the Ukrainians.
The strike could be the most dramatic. The command post of the Russian 49th Combined Arms Army was destroyed by the Ukrainians on Friday. Two Russian generals were killed and a third was wounded in the attack.
These strikes alone won't end the war. Replacement leaders tend to be more aggressive and cruel than the established leaders they replace.
Blowing up a command post can make the units vulnerable to an attack. As Ukrainians mobilize their reserves and re-equipping with Western-supplied weapons, they could become more frequent and decisive in rolling back Russian territorial gains.
Smashing a bunch of Russian HQs can help.
Russian-backed rebels seized huge swathes of eastern Donbas in the aftermath of Russia's annexation of Ukraine.
In July of last year, three powerful Ukrainian army formations assembled near Zelenopillya, just a few miles from the Russian border, in preparation for an attack on rebel-held territory.
Three Ukrainian army brigades gathered at the camp. The 24th Mechanized brigade, 72nd Mechanized brigade and 79th Air-Mobile brigade all had T-64 tanks.
The camp was spied on by Russian drones. The Russians were able to find their location despite the Ukrainians shooting down one Orlan-10. Russian forces jammed the Ukrainian command post's radios on July 11.
The Ukrainians lost the ability to communicate due to Russian cyber and electronic attack, according to Amos Fox, a major in the U.S. Army.
Thirty soldiers and six border guards died. Two battalions worth of vehicles and equipment were burned.
Fox explained that armored formations are built for activity.
The principle was appreciated by the Russian army. It seems to have forgotten it and refuses to relearn. Russian command posts have recently been blown up by Ukrainian forces.
The Russians eight years ago used a combination of drones and phone and radio intercepts to locate Ukrainian command posts. The location of Russian headquarters in the current fighting is not clear.
They may also rely on drones. The United States and other foreign powers have been flying intelligence sorties just outside of Ukrainian air space, and sharing the intel with Ukraine.
Around the time of the attack on the 49th CAA headquarters, a Royal Air Force RC-135 signals-intelligence plane was over the Black Sea.
It is interesting that the raid happened on Friday. Russian lines around Kherson have grown fragile as the Kremlin focuses its efforts around Izium. According to reports, Ukraine is planning an operation to liberate Kherson.
Expect the Russians to replace the two generals if they died in the destruction of the headquarters. Expect the Ukrainians to blow up command posts around Kherson as they prepare for a possible counteroffensive.
The loss of an HQ is disruptive to the army. It learned the hard way.