Do Russians really support the war?

The inaugural Europe Express Weekend newsletter is here. I will be giving you my thoughts on one of the big themes of the week every Saturday. New subscribers can sign up here, and existing subscribers can receive the email.

I'm looking at Russian public opinion this weekend. Do Russians support Putin? Do they support Putin? How accurate are opinion polls in an authoritarian system?

There are morons who draw Z, but 10% of any country are morons. He wrote this week that 90 percent of Russians are against the war.

In a post rich in profanities, he said that the Russians had a shit army. How could the army be good if everything else in the country is bad?

You might think that Tinkov is good. A man is brave. Wait a second. This is a billionaire under sanctions by the UK government who is not currently living in Russia.

Is there a better way to measure Russian attitudes to the war? The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Center, which is Russia's most respected, independent polling group, conducted a survey on March 24-30, and it was published this month.

The headline was "Russian Public Accepts Putin's Spin on Ukraine Conflict". There is a volley of expletives coming from Tinkov.

According to the survey, 53 percent of Russians support the military operation in Ukraine, while 28 percent support it somewhat. A large majority of people have a positive view of Putin.

I would caution against treating this as the final word on the subject. The authors of the report say that the Russian government has banned the terms "war" and "invasion" to describe what it is doing in Ukraine. When asking Russians for their views, the questioners used the less alarming words "military operation" or "military action".

The Russian authorities and state-controlled media used the terms "denazify" and "denazification" until this month. This language is propaganda and a lie.

The survey questions were not phrased in a way that was neutral. The climate of intimidation in Putin's Russia is intensifying. Matters are different in Ukraine.

In the current environment of extreme censorship in Russia, it is difficult to know what to make of polls and public opinion.

Older Russians are more likely to support the war than younger ones, according to his colleague. She said Russians who rely on state television for their news are more likely to support the war than those who rely on the internet.

The trenchant analysis in Foreign Affairs is written by a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Putin has divided the nation. Both opponents and supporters of the Russian leader have become more radicalised . . . Fear of authority not only prevents people from protesting against a barbaric war, it also makes them unable to admit even to themselves that Putin’s Russia has committed something dreadful.”

And finally

Tomorrow is the French presidential election, with Marine Le Pen in the running. French foreign policy will need to change after the election. Simon Kuper explains why the French think they have never had it so bad. Europe Express will bring you more news and developments on Monday.

Tony’s picks of the week

• Algeria is struggling to help Europe wean itself off of Russian gas.

• The second casualty of war is public finances. Mojmir Hampl wrote for Omfif, an independent think-tank for central banking, economic policy and public investment.

Tony.barber@ft.