The seven Colorado River basin states have a plan for stabilizing Lake Powell. It has some pain but not a lot of gain. No one objected. That is a win. That should show how bad the situation has become. According to a letter from the U.S. Department of the Interior to the basin, the Glen Canyon Dam is so low that it will no longer be able to generate power and the water will no longer flow through existing pipes. If any of the four backup pipes were damaged, it would be a risk that could spell disaster for Lake Mead, which relies on Powell's releases. The Interior proposed taking an unprecedented action of withholding more than 156 billion gallons of water from Lake Powell. The seven states responded with a single voice, "We get how dire this is, and we're on board." In their April 22 response, they said that the current conditions in the Basin have continued to decline since their April 8, 2022, letter to the Governors. The upper basin states will agree to release half a million acres from the Flaming Gorge Reservoir as part of the new plan. That is more than the 161,000 acre-feet that was released from upstream reservoirs last year. The lower basin states, including Arizona, will agree to keep 480,000 acre-feet in Powell, though the states have asked for that amount not to count against shortage determinations. The idea is to not use the actual elevation to determine which tier we are in, but to use the actual elevation of Powell. It is not clear how the federal Bureau of Reclamation would make that determination, but the outcome could have real consequences. When the shortage determination is made in the following year, the lake will be a few inches above thetrigger elevation of 1,045 feet. We would be in a deeper Tier 2 shortage regardless. If we land on the other side of 1,045 feet, we could fall into a Tier 2a or Tier 2b shortage, which is the difference between making mandatory cuts of 592,000 acre-feet or 640,000 acre-feet. A Tier 2b shortage would cause more stringent water saving actions. It's possible that there could be mandatory restrictions in both cities. I know. If we base shortage decisions on where the lake should be, we are making the conditions look better than they are. Even if we could temporarily avoid the pain of Tier 2b, that doesn't help us in the long run. The states have agreed that water year 2023 releases should be carefully monitored and be subject of consultation with the Basin States to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam. We will get another look at the situation in late winter or early spring when we have a better idea of the year's water levels. It's a level of flexibility that we haven't traditionally had, but will likely need when lake levels are low. This doesn't solve anything, of course. Even a combined million acre-feet from the states will likely prolong the inevitable, hopefully long enough to better assess the strength of Powell's backup pipes. The extra 500,000 acre-feet will be stored in Lake Mead for the next five years as part of the 500-plus plan. The lake will sink below 1,020 feet of elevation if there is no extra water each year. To finally sit down and talk about long-term solutions for the Colorado River, most notably how much water we can reliably expect it to produce. It is not the 15 million acre-feet that we have apportioned. It is significant that all seven states agreed to it quickly so that we can get back to work. Allhands can be reached at janna.allhands@arizonarepublic.com. There is a person on the social media site, called "joannaallhands." If you love this content, why not subscribe to get more? Lake Powell will get a million-acre feet of water. It is not enough. 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What does that mean for shortages at Lake Mead?
We extinguished a fire to focus on other work
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