Another overly optimistic tech deadline. The public fully-autonomousTeslas are just around the corner, but so far Musk has had to eat his lunch. The troll king of the internet decided to double down on his prediction thatTesla will launch a commercial robotaxis by 2024.
Musk said during the Q1 earnings call that the company is dedicated to a robot that is highly-optimistic. The company aspires to reach volume production by 2024, according to Musk.
Musk said that will be a massive driver of the company's growth.
As anyone watching the space over the past decade knows, moving a vehicle out of a test track and onto public roads requires rigorous testing, verification processes, regulatory assurances, and loads. The company's less than 24 month self-imposed deadline could be cut in half if they were to work with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to complete the necessary paperwork. The U.S Department of Defense, which has access to hundreds of billions of dollars in funding and some of the nation's most advanced technology, has struggled to rapidly deploy self-driving vehicles. Those restrictions don't apply to the company.
If Musk had announced the goal several months ago, it would have been more unlikely. The NHTSA no longer requires manual driving controls for self-drive vehicles to pass crash test standards. That clears the way for vehicles to operate without a driver in mind.
The NHTSA's new rules apply to systems with Level 3, 4, or 5 driving automation systems. Level 2 autonomy is only available in commercial vehicles. When it comes to designing first robotaxis,Tesla lags behind the competition. Late last year, the self-driving car division of Alphabet announced that it was developing a ride hailing system that could potentially ship without a steering wheel or pedals. Rather than give a deadline, the company said it would arrive in the years to come. Since last summer, customers in China have been charged for rides around Beijing.
This wouldn't be the first time Musk underestimated a deadline or oversold a product. Musk told the owners of the company that their existing vehicles could be self-driving by 2020. The Cybertruck was supposed to be ready for delivery months ago. Musk said during his Q1 that the company remains on track to meet volume production of the Cybertruck next year.
Other times, as was the case with the company's recent humanoid robot reveal last year, Musk stepped away from firm deadlines and demos and instead relied on a spandex clad dancing dude.
In terms of stock performance, no one seems to give a shit if these deadlines ever actually happen. The company reported $18.86 billion in revenue this week, an 87% increase over last year. The world's largest automakers have had to cut production due to a global chip shortage.
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