We watched hours of broadcasts on Russian networks and spoke with expert fact checkers to understand how Russia is spinning the war it started in Ukraine. According to reports, Putin blamed high-level officials for the failures in Ukraine. According to experts, Putin is responsible for creating a culture that allows misinformation. Robert English, a Russia expert, said that it only happened because he didn't want to hear the truth. Russian President Vladimir Putin was anticipating a certain victory when his country invaded Ukraine in the early hours of February 24. Reports suggest that the leader was expecting to roll into the neighboring territory, flatten a modest resistance, and be met by scores of grateful Ukrainians. According to experts, the Russian interlopers have been badly affected by the failure of the Ukrainian resistance, which has led to the ousting of high-level officials he blames for the losses. Simon Miles is an assistant professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy and a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations. Ukrainian media reported in March that Putin had fired Roman Gavrilov, the deputy chief of the Russian national guard. One source told Bellingcat that he was dismissed due to leaks of military info that led to the loss of life, while two others said it was for the same reason. Reports claimed that Putin had placed two senior officials with the FSB, Russia's security service, under house arrest. According to a Russian journalist and leading expert on Russian intelligence, one such official has been sent to Lefortovo prison. Insider has learned that if Putin is upset with the information or advice he gets from advisers, the president himself is responsible for creating an autocratic culture of fear that allowed misinformation to filter directly to him. Robert English is a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, and eastern Europe. There was no bread and salt when the invasion of Russia took place, despite the expectations of Putin. After a stalemate forced Russia to retreat from the areas around Kyiv and instead focus on the east, many wondered how Putin got it so wrong. According to his sources, Soldatov told The New Yorker in March that some of the firings in Russia's intelligence community may be a result of failed political warfare within Ukraine. He said the foreign-intelligence branch of the FSB was likely tasked with setting up networks of pro-Kremlin political groups in Ukraine before the invasion. According to experts, the cause of these Russian gaffes is likely flawed or over inflated information delivered to Putin from the country's intelligence apparatus and his advisers. They probably told him that they had more extensive networks and penetration of the Ukrainian government, and that they had laid the groundwork for a more effective internal opposition to Zelenskyy. That didn't happen as we know. According to a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies Russian politics and economics, Putin may have underestimated the opposition within Ukraine. Polls suggested Zelenksyy wasn't very popular. Zelenskyy has received overwhelming support from around the world and in Ukraine, but his approval rating was low before the war. "Putin believed that a lot of the Ukrainian population felt tied to Russia and that the Ukrainian government administration was not friendly to them," said Treisman. A US official said last month that Putin's top advisors are too afraid to tell him the truth and are feeding him bad information. Even at the expense of accuracy and accountability, advisors and employees have an outsized incentive to prove their worth when all state power is in the hands of a single individual. I would think that he was getting stories from people in the intelligence services who were under house arrest. Bad news doesn't filter well in authoritarian regimes. No one wants to be responsible for saying things aren't going well. Putin has a reputation for firing people who disagree with him. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and the rest of his cabinet were fired by the first-term president weeks before he was re-elected. The Washington Post reported at the time that Kasyanov had challenged Putin's approach to dealing with oil industry magnates. A video taken days before the invasion showed Putin pressing Russia's spy chief to say if he supported Russia's actions in Ukraine. Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, appeared to be in trouble as Putin cut him off multiple times. He got the bad advice that he asked for, even if he didn't realize he was asking for it. Putin has a misinformation problem not only with the individual people in his circle, but also with the circle itself. The months leading up to Russia's assault on Ukraine have been remarked on in post-invasion reporting. Experts said his shift toward isolation has been going on for decades. He had a wide range of advisers with different views when he started. Putin's social isolation turned physical in recent years. The presidential compound is an hour outside of Moscow and has been where Putin has lived for most of his reign. Usually, Putin went into the Kremlin for official business. With the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Putin's isolationist streak intensified. The 69-year-old has been extremely cautious in dealing with the virus, forcing people to take multiple tests and isolation for days in order to be granted a face-to-face meeting. The isolation is not new. The war was launched because of his isolation, according to Miles. Going into the invasion of Ukraine was reminiscent of a previous era in Russia's history. The fall of the USSR would be a result of the soviet Union intelligence and military officials initially being reluctant to invade Afghanistan in 1979. The officials were aware of what would happen after the invasion. In the end, they were ignored, and a small group of senior figures decided that they were going to do it. The Soviet leaders decided to go to war despite the fact that they could not. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, some thought they would be welcomed as liberators like Putin expected in Ukraine. Neither happened. The regimes of the USSR and Russia were afraid of stepping too far out of line, which led to bad or incomplete information reaching the top, according to English. He said that if you are an independent, critical thinker and not a member of the Communist party, you don't rise up through the Putin administration. When autocrats with their egos and their prejudices get in power and they don't have anyone to check them, bad things happen. The leader blames the people around them, even though they didn't really have a choice because they were afraid, protecting their careers and their families by telling the person in charge what they want to hear, according to English. English said that it happened in Soviet times and in ancient times. The original article is on Business Insider. While he still has to get through the Democratic primary he has already shown he is capable of hauling in big money for his campaign, and he is hoping to oust Rep. 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INSIDER
Putin thought taking Ukraine would be easy. He was wrong.
Bad news doesn't filter up in autocratic regimes
Putin's isolation is decades in the making
A simple, timeless tale
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