Dalal Street sees horror at the start of a new week. Factors dragging markets lower

The Indian stock market is in the red after a long weekend. At 9:56am, the BSE was down 1,079.31 points or 1.85 percent at 57,259.62, and the Nifty was down 276.50 points or 1.58 percent at 17,199.20.

The IT index fell over 4%, led by Infosys which lost 6 percent. The Bank Nifty was down over 1 percent because of capital goods and power issues.

In the near-term, the market is getting stronger according to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist. The global economy is expected to weaken if the war in Ukraine continues and the dollar index is above 100.

Even though growth prospects appear bright, the results of India'sInfosystems came worse than expected with rising attrition and weakened margins. The index may be dragged down by IT valuations.

A clear trend in the market is preference for value over growth. The out performance of the mid-caps is likely to continue. Vijayakumar said that investors will get buying opportunities on declines.

The market action can be seen on our live blog.

The factors are dragging the markets down.

China's GDP.

China's gross domestic product grew at a rate of 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022, compared to 4 percent in the fourth quarter. The growth number has come in higher than anticipated, due to the disruptions in March. The growth figures may not fully capture the impact of the COVID lockdowns in several cities, including Shanghai.

The People's Bank of China has begun easing measures to reduce the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 basis points. The measure falls short of what many economists were expecting, and there have been no rate cuts.

Inflation in India.

In March, consumer inflation came in at a high of 6.95 percent, higher than a poll that had pegged it at 6.28 percent. Most economists, including those from Citi, HSBC and Kotak, have revised their inflation forecasts for the year upward and now see as many as six repo rate hikes in consecutive Monetary Policy Committee meetings starting in June. The repo rate is expected to be at 5.5 percent by April 2023. The rate is close to 4 percent. The 10-year bond yield is expected to shoot up from the overnight close of 7.17 percent to 7.25 percent.

The IT index fell over 4%.

The IT index fell as much as 6 percent. The analysts have cut their estimates for the company's margin. It was the biggest fall in the market since March 23, 2020. The margin estimates were cut by 170 basis points because of the miss. The EBIT margin is expected to fall by 100bp to 22 percent and the earnings per share is expected to fall by 6-7 percent.

Oil prices are higher.

Oil prices rose on Monday as concerns grew about tighter global supply, with the crisis in Ukraine raising the prospect of heavier sanctions by the West on top exporter Russia. US West Texas Intermediate futures were up 98 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $107 a barrel at the start of the day. 3 million barrels per day of Russian oil could be shut in from May onwards if buyers don't buy Russian oil, as warned by the International Energy Agency.

The global markets are in the red.

The dollar and bond yields rose on Thursday as investors worried about the potential for aggressive US policy tightening as other central banks around the world moved to reduce support. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped, following two days of declines, after a flurry of US economic data such as retail sales and jobless claims.

The Asian markets apart from the Indian ones were down, with Hang Seng adding half a percent and SGX Nifty down close to 100 points.

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