Russian Bombers Just Carpet-Bombed Mariupol

Russian air force Tu-22M bombers flew into Ukrainian air space on Thursday and dropped unguided bombs on Ukrainian troops in the besieged city of Mariupol.

It was the first time since the beginning of the war that Russia's supersonic bombers directly attacked the country. Russian air space was attacked by Tu-22Ms before the Mariupol mission.

The bombing run, which was recorded by a Russian drone and later confirmed by Ukrainian officials, could indicate that the Kremlin is running low on cruise missiles.

It takes a certain amount of desperation to fly the big bombers within range of enemy air-defenses. The Tu-22M was shot down by Georgian troops during the Russian invasion of the Republic of Georgia in 2008.

A stick of gravity bombs exploded on the campus of the Azovstal steel plant on the eastern outskirts of Mariupol during the Tu-22M raid.

The ruins of Mariupol hold around 160,000 people. The humanitarian situation in the city is worsening.

Azovstal is an important point in the city's defense. The local territorial defense force, the Ukrainian marine corps, and the Azov Battalion have been holed up in and around the industrial maze. A number of marines broke out of an isolated defensive pocket in Mariupol in order to link up with the Azov Battalion.

Surrounded and all but cut off from the rest of the Ukrainian military except for occasional, high-risk helicopter supply runs, the Azovstal defenders for more than six weeks have held off a much larger force of Russian, Chechen and rebel troops.

Significant numbers of Russian troops and equipment are being tied down by the continued defense of Mariupol.

Russian air activity is expected to increase in the south and east of Ukraine.

Russia should bombard Azovstal. The Kremlin was willing to fly Tu-22Ms over the plant. Every previous Russian bomber avoided going anywhere near Ukraine.

Fifty days into the war, the air-defense system is mostly intact. At least 71 Russian aircraft have been shot down by the Ukrainian air-defenders. They would love to add one of Russia's Tu-22Ms to their kills.

It is possible that the Russians are running out of cruise missiles and that they have no choice but to bomb Mariupol.

A Pentagon official told reporters on March 25 that the Kremlin's inventory of long-range precision munitions was down by half.

The Tu-22Ms returned to their base undamaged after the recent raid. Russia's continued reliance on unguided bombs decreases their ability to discriminate when targeting and conducting strikes while greatly increasing the risk of further civilian casualties.

If the Russians are running low on cruise missiles, expect more bombers to fly directly over the war zone and drop dumb bombs. The Ukrainians will aim at the warplanes.