The mayor of New York. The speaker is in the House. Sarah JessicaParker is a person. They are just three of the many Americans who have recently caught COVID-19, in a wave of infections that is being blamed for the cancellation of Broadway shows, and a prolonging of the federal mask mandate for travel.

It is almost certain that it is due to viral evolution within Omicron.

There have been a lot of coronaviruses cases in the US from Washington DC to New York and Boston. Philadelphia has reinstituted its mask mandate for public indoor spaces.

The current case rates pale in comparison to those recorded in the initial Omicron surge at the beginning of the year, but wastewater data suggests the level of virus circulating in the community is going back up to heights not previously seen.

chart showing % of positive tests in manhattan on uptick since march
The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 in Manhattan has been rising steadily since mid-March.
COVID Alert NY

The Omicron subvariants that have evolved further from the Omicron that was first detected in the US are likely to be the reason for the increase in the northeast.

This pace of reconfiguration and proliferation in the Omicron family is nothing new, and is actually nothing frightening.

It is possible that this could be a sign that the virus is moving in a more predictable direction.

The Omicron subvariants to know about, from BA.2 to XE

Other, highly infectious Omicron subvariants, such as BA.3 and BA.4 have been detected around the world.

In the UK, where case rates have been high in the past couple of months, a mixture of BA.1 and BA.2 has been identified as a recombinant version of Omicron. Only a few cases of XE have been detected so far in the US, and it is not known if the disease will ever spread very far.

The most prevalent coronaviruses in the US are all versions of BA.2, which is responsible for 85% of cases.

Why new Omicron subvariants aren't necessarily a bad thing

It was impossible to predict the emergence of Omicron, a genetically different version of the virus. Experts are cautiously optimistic that evolution of the virus may stay Omicron-specific for a little while now that Omicron is dominant.

graphic showing how genetically related different SARS-CoV-2 variants are, with omicrons grouped together, far away from others like delta and beta Nextstrain via FDA VRBPAC meeting, April 6, 2022.

The Omicron subvariants are marginally more transmissible than BA.1, giving them an advantage. These subvariants don't seem to be any more dangerous than others. They are still Omicron relatives.

Epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina said in her newsletter last week that continued viral evolution within Omicron may be good news.

There are two cases and deaths coming down, and we know that Omicron is the most common strain of the disease. When it comes to severe outcomes, vaccines and booster shots still work well, as do well-fitting respirators and face masks made from medical-grade materials.

Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN that he would try his best to avoid it. I am doubly boosted and I am not careless in what I do. Does that mean I won't get sick? No. Everyone has a degree of risk. Unless you stay in your room, the risk is not zero.