The Ukrainians Claim They Damaged A Russian Cruiser. Be Skeptical.

There are unconfirmed reports that a Ukrainian navy missile battery struck the Russian navy cruiser Moskva off the coast of Odessa, a strategic port city on the Black Sea.

Multiple Ukrainian government officials claimed Wednesday that a Neptune anti-ship battery scored two hits on Moskva, setting the vessel ablaze.

The strike was announced by an adviser to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Maksym Marchenko said that the missiles caused serious damage to the Russian ship.

An audio recording, purportedly of Ukrainian troops reporting the attack on the cruiser, was circulating on social media.

Be skeptical. Russian warships have been hit by Ukrainian sources more than once since the beginning of the war.

There is only one verified report. In late March, Ukrainian troops in Mariupol used an old anti-tank guided missile to hit a Russian patrol boat.

Neptune is a much more dangerous weapon than the Konkurs ATGM. The Ukrainian navy was going to induct about six Neptune batteries this spring, but probably only had one.

The first test shots of the missile were completed in the year of 2019. The Neptune system fires missiles that can fly as far as 180 miles. The missile has a booster from the S-125 anti-air missile. The head has a detection range of 30 miles.

A Neptune battery includes a truck-mounted launcher with four rounds, a command truck and a pair of resupply trucks, as well as links to a mobile Mineral-U radar with a 370-mile range.

If the Ukrainians did hit Moskva with a Neptune, it means they first managed to cobble together, man and deploy at least one complete battery with all its supporting systems in the middle of a devastating war.

It also means they fed the data to the battery via a land-based radar or some other sensor. This is not easy.

The claimed attack on Moskva would be consistent with the course of the naval campaign. The Moskva is the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and it has been unable to completely suppress the coastal defenses of Ukraine.

Any amphibious operation against a Ukrainian port is extremely risky for the attackers. The Saratov, which burst into flames while pier-side in the occupied port of Berdyansk on March 24, underscored that risk.

It is possible that the Ukrainians hit Saratov. Maybe one of the Ukrainian navy's Turkish-made drones was able to slip through the local air-defenses and hit the vessel with a guided missile.

The destruction of the Saratov landing ship at Berdyansk will likely damage the confidence of the Russian navy to conduct operations in close proximity to the coast of Ukraine in the future.

The Russian amphibious attack is less likely if the Ukrainians hit Moskva.

Moskva has been in commission for 40 years. She has 16 fixed launchers for P-1000 anti-ship missiles, vertical tubes for 64 S-300 air-defense missiles, rail launchers for 40 Osa missiles, and a lot of guns. She has torpedoes tubes and a helicopter.

Moskva is the Black Sea Fleet's best defense against Ukrainian attacks. The fleet is still vulnerable with her. Without her, it would be even more exposed.