Full embargo on oil could stop war - ex-Putin aide

A real embargo on Russian energy by Western countries could stop the war in Ukraine, according to President Putin's former chief economic adviser.

Russia did not take threats to reduce energy usage seriously.

Europe is still buying oil and gas despite trying to reduce its dependence on Russia.

Oil and gas revenues accounted for 34% of Russia's government spending last year.

The European Union imports 40% of its gas and 27% of its oil.

Josep Borrell, its top diplomat, said this week that we pay Putin a billion dollars a day for the energy he supplies us.

If Western countries tried to impose a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia, Dr. Illarionov said... Russian military operations in Ukraine are likely to be stopped within a month or two.

He said that it is one of the most effective instruments in the possession of the Western countries.

While the oil and gas trade has continued during the conflict, a lot of other economic activity has stopped, and many foreign companies have pulled out.

The International Institute of Finance says the economy could fall by as much as 15%, while the central bank in Russia says the economy will shrink by 8% this year.

Dr Illarionov said that President Putin was prepared for a hit to the economy that showed where his priorities were.

He said that the livelihood of the Russian population and the financial state of the government are more important than anything else.

President Putin said last week that the key indicators of the health of the Russian economy include the creation of jobs, the reduction of poverty and inequality, and the improvement of the quality of life of people.

According to the World Bank, almost 20 million Russians live in poverty.

In recent years, President Putin has pledged to reduce that number.

As the economy struggles, we will probably see doubling the number of those people, according to Dr Illarionov.

Two million jobs could be lost this year as the unemployment rate rises from a record low, according to the Centre for Strategic Research.

Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister in Russia, is now a member of the Russia of the Future opposition party.

He said that many people are concerned about losing their jobs, but the majority doesn't realize the severity of the economic situation.

Inflation, which has already risen to 15.7% because of the war, means people might stop spending money on things such as gyms and meals in restaurants, which is bad news for a lot of small businesses.

Sugar, onions, and cabbages have risen in price by more than 40% since the beginning of the year.

Mr Milov said that falling living standards would help his party as an opposition.

He said that they have been telling people all along that Putin's policy would lead Russia into a catastrophe, including a complete social and economic catastrophe.

That comes at an extremely high price. We don't want to see what is happening today.

Mr Milov thinks it will take time for falling living standards to translate to political change.

Russia is a country with inertia and a lot of fear. Right now people can end up in jail for a long, long time for doing that, so they are very much afraid of protesting.

He said that the economy would change the mood of the society within a few months. There will be more people speaking out loudly.

A change of government is inevitable, according to President Putin's former adviser.

He said that it is impossible to have a positive future for Russia with the current political regime.

There is no way that country could be integrated back into the international relations under President Putin, he said.

Talking Business with Aaron Heslehurst has interviews with Dr Andrei Illarionov and Vladimir Milov this weekend.

The show can be watched on the internet in the UK.

In other countries, it will be on the World News on Sunday and Monday.