His pitch to engage and empower the 30-and-under set comes at a perilous moment for the party. Democrats have faced slim margins in Congress before. The current iteration of the Democratic Party has never been on such shaky ground with young people.
The approval of President Joe Biden among people aged 18 to 30 was the lowest for a Democratic president in decades. Among that group, Barack Obama never dropped below 42 percent. In some cases, the swing against Biden was between 20 and 30 percentage points. He has made gains in some polls, but is still on shaky ground.
The Democrats are at risk of losing the youth vote in 2022, as they backed Biden by a 25-point margin in 2020. Powerful Democrats are looking for answers from a 54-year-old pollster with salt-and-pepper hair who is not on TikTok.
He is hailed by industry colleagues and political operatives on both sides of the aisle for his knowledge of young voters. John Anzalone, Biden's lead campaign pollster, said that the data yielded so much depth of understanding. Harvard University's Institute of Politics Youth Poll has been led by Della Volpe since 2000 and has included former students such as House GOP Conference Chair and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg.
It is important for Democrats to know what moves young voters, how they feel about politicians, and whether they are going to disengage from politics altogether. Even though they are a core part of the party's base, they are not as broadly studied or understood as independents. There are more younger people in play than in the last two cycles, according to Della Volpe.
Pollster John Della Volpe with students in 2018. | Martha Stewart/Courtesy of John Della Volpe
This cycle is different than the past ones, where Democrats mostly worried about whether young people would vote. Democrats need to persuade them and mobilize them in the face of economic unrest, and without former President Donald Trump as a foil. That is the new reality.
The pollster, who was part of Biden's team during the 2020 general election, still has the ear of many in the administration. According to people familiar with the meetings, Della Volpe made several presentations to White House staff.
John Walsh, the Massachusetts Democrat's chief of staff, said that Biden's yo-yoing numbers with young people should concern everyone.
I worry that some people are not listening to John.
Della Volpe has been listening to young people for two decades.
Two Harvard University students wanted to understand why college students participate in community service, but don't vote, when Della Volpe conducted his first youth survey with them in 2000. dial testing was a cutting-edge technology of the day and was used to rate participants' reaction to political speeches or campaign ads. President Bill Clinton and Sen. Ted Kennedy were some of his clients.
No one was listening to the younger people. Young people are more difficult to survey. They are more nomadic, less comfortable picking up a phone number, and more likely to require different language options.
“There are more younger people in play than there were in the last two cycles. ... Democrats need to persuade them and mobilize them. That is the new reality.”
They didn't vote, so candidates didn't appeal to them, and then they didn't vote, so it was a vicious cycle.
Since 2000, the Harvard Youth Poll has grown in scope, with undergraduates developing questions and Della Volpe editing and sharpening them. He predicted that young people would show up in historic numbers, calling it a moment of "once-in-a- generation attitudinal shift" around voting. Some pollsters were wrong about the number of 18- to 29-year-olds who voted in the cycle.
Ben Wessel, who served as the executive director of the largest Democratic group focused on youth mobilizers, said that the Harvard Youth Poll was the only consistent data set to look at change over time.
Matt Barreto, a Democratic pollster, said that Della Volpe is extremely effective at going beyond percentages and crosstabs in order to get to the true viewpoint.
He zeroed in on how Gen Z is defined by anxiety through key events, such as Trump. He wrote in his book that Gen Z is channeling their fear and passion to save America.
In recent focus groups conducted with two dozen Gen Zers, Della Volpe asked them to share something good that had happened to them. He asked if they felt like their personal lives were on the right track, and if they weren't. They were asked about their mental health. It took nearly an hour before he asked about politics.
It is perhaps a unique perspective in politics when you focus on values first, second and third.
A sign of young people's political enthusiasm came out of Virginia's governor's race. Even though Virginia worked to expand access to the ballot in the last two years, TargetSmart found that turnout among 18- to 29-year-olds dropped by just over half a percentage point.
The Democratic pollster said that he was not optimistic about young people's participation in the elections.
Tom Bonier, TargetSmart's CEO, said the key question is if youth turnout in 2020 was driven more by opposition to Trump than enthusiasm for Biden.
Claudia Cedillos, left, waves signs with her daughter Montserrat before a campaign rally for Democratic then-presidential candidate Joe Biden, on Nov. 2, 2020, in Miami. | Lynne Sladky/AP Photo
If operatives are only focused on who is in the Oval Office or on Biden's approval ratings, they are not looking at the right data. He pointed to the third of young Americans who said they would still vote in 2022, according to his December Harvard Youth Poll. That is the same as what participants told him in the spring of last year. They have formed a voting habit over the last two elections, which indicates that youth turnout might be higher in the future.
If Democrats and Republicans don't vote, they won't turn out.
It starts with regular communication, Della Volpe said, suggesting regular check-ins to update them on policy progress.
Della Volpe said that they would power them. Democrats can sometimes stand in their own way in reaching young people because they get weighed down in the transactional nature of politics. Where do we agree, and what is the process to get there?
Student debt, mental health, climate change and dealing with the rising cost of living are some of the policy areas where potential executive actions from Biden would very quickly capture the attention of young people.
In large part, they have been following up on these issues, but it is about extending the conversation in new and different ways to remind people that we are not done.
Major progressive groups think Biden can go further. They argue that he should work harder on his climate agenda.
"Young people want to see action, and that's why we're yelling as loud as we can," said the president of NextGen America.
EllenSciales, a press secretary for the Sunrise Movement, said that young people are really disappointed because not much has been accomplished around student debt or on ambitious climate goals.
Biden has turned his numbers around with young people before, a saga that may show a path forward for him in the next six months.
Biden's numbers with young people were not the same as they were in the presidential primary. A group of students went to Charleston in February 2020 to conduct a focus group a week before the South Carolina primary. We probably doubled the size of the crowd after they dropped by a Biden event.
After the event, Biden's sister and a former Harvard Institute of Politics fellow spoke to the students, and then pulled him aside for a private assessment of the primary race. Biden finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. He was going to finish second in Nevada.
Owens told John to talk to his brother because he was saying what his brother knew.
In this Aug. 7, 2019, photo, then-presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to local residents during a community event in Burlington, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergal/AP Photo
It was a turning point for Biden and young voters when he said "I hear you" to the people who supported him. The three simple words were all that millions of people were waiting to hear.
Owens said that John reinforced to Joe that people want to be heard.
When Biden became the nominee, he started listening to young people, and that's when he realized he was not a young voter.
Young people supported the oldest presidential nominee in history in the general election.
After two years of stalling agenda items important to young people, Democrats are worried about where young people are in terms of not feeling engaged or motivated.
You have to give them a reason to show up.
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