Box Office: 'Joker' Remains On Track To Pass $300 Million Domestic

For those still keeping score, Joker earned another $2.425 million (-51% from last Wednesday) to bring its domestic cume up to $256.245 million. That puts it in spitting distance from Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($259 million in 2014) and The Amazing Spider-Man ($262 million in 2012). That will put it in 28th place among all comic book adaptations, in terms of unadjusted domestic grosses, behind Man of Steel ($291 million in 2013). It might be a week or so before it passes the Superman reboot, by which point Warner Bros. will (hopefully) be celebrating a decent opening for Doctor Sleep, their next big R-rated horror movie.

Of the various dramas coming from the Dream Factory, I'm most optimistic for Bill Condon's The Good Liar. I haven't seen it, and I don't have the tracking yet for the film (that's hopefully for later). But, offhand, the New Line release has a solid premise (Ian McKellen is a con man trying to romance his way to Helen Mirren's booty... and booty), is being sold as a thriller and has two stars who may hold some sway over the older audiences who still see old-school movies in movie theaters. Mirren's The Woman in Gold earned $33 million in 2015 and Eye in the Sky earned $17 million in 2016.

If Joker legs, from this point onward, like Deadpool 2, Logan and Venom, it'll end its run with between $305 million and $311 million domestic, or just under what Man of Steel earned (around $322 million) when adjusted for inflation. That said, it has displayed remarkable legs thus far, and it has clear sailing in North America until Terminator: Dark Fate on November 1. The big question going forward is whether it can continue to leg out in the face of a pretty crowded holiday season (it'll lose screens by default) and whether it can last long enough to get any kind of Oscar season boost.

It's late October and the Oscar season is still essentially confined to the art house, with platforming breakouts like Jojo Rabbit, Parasite and Pain & Glory hoping to capitalize on buzz, strong reviews and huge per-theater averages. We won't get a "big" Oscar contender until Fox/Disney's Ford v Ferrari on November 15 (we may get tracking ) and Sony's Won't You Be My Neighbor on November 22. That's partially why Sony is putting Once Upon a Time... In Hollywood back into theaters this weekend with ten minutes of new footage, presumably with a new scene where Bruce Lee kills Cliff Booth with a single punch to the heart.

It's likely that Joker will end up closer to Thor: Ragnarok ($315 million) than Aquaman ($335 million), but it could still be the "big" movie long enough to catch a second wave as the awards season rolls around. That said, a $306 million cume for a $60 million, R-rated movie like Joker would be spectacular. Moreover, if it continues its 33.5/66.5 domestic/overseas split (it's currently at around $765 million worldwide and should pass Deadpool 2 on Friday), we'd be looking at a ridiculous $914 million global cume. That would be the biggest R-rated movie, the biggest Fall release and the most profitable comic book movie in terms of budget-to-gross.