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President Vladimir Putin of Russia projected onto the side of building during a speech in Moscow, on April 21, 2021. (Sergey Ponomarev/The New York Times)
President Vladimir Putin of Russia projected onto the side of building during a speech in Moscow, on April 21, 2021. (Sergey Ponomarev/The New York Times)

I came face to face with a contradiction when I was in Russia in the summer of 2015. What if a place was not free but happy? How long could it last?

Moscow was a beautiful European city with parks, bike lanes and parking spaces. Over the course of the previous decade, the average Russian's income had risen. The political system was drifting closer toauthoritarianism.

Boris Yeltsin apologized on national television for having failed to justify the hopes of the people who believed that we would be able to make a leap from the gloomy and stagnant totalitarian past.

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By the summer of 2015, Putin had made Russia prosperous and bright. Many had learned to live with the political system he built.

Russian liberals went to work for nonprofits and local governments to make their cities better places to live. People were looking for other ways to shape their country after a protest movement failed. One could make a difference in small acts, but big politics was useless.

The other side of the bargain was that Putin was constrained as well. There was tolerance when it came to religion, culture, and many other forms of expression, even though political action was forbidden. He had to make room for society because of his own math.

I started covering Russia for The New York Times in 2000 after Putin was first elected. In public writing and in my private life, I told people that Russia had a lot of wonderful qualities.

I have felt like I am watching someone I love lose their mind since Russia invaded Ukraine. Many of the Russian liberals who had turned to small acts are feeling a sense of shock and horror, according to a Russian anthropologist.

It was a big mistake, she said. When the cancer was growing in our stomachs, we were trying to make some changes to our faces.

I wondered if Russia was always going to end up here. I called Yevgeniya Albats, a Russian journalist who had warned of the dangers of a KGB resurgence. Albats was staring at the idea that at certain points in history, everything is at stake in political thought and action. She had argued that any bargain with Putin was a lie.

She said that 2008 was a turning point when Putin invaded another country and the West barely noticed.

She said by telephone last month that it was a clear sign that Putin could do whatever he wanted. That is exactly what he started doing. He behaved rationally. He realized that you don't care.

She was referring to the invasion of Georgia by Russia in 2008. I spent the night with a Russian unit in the Georgian town of Gori after covering the war, and I remember how happy the soldiers were. The loss of the Soviets in the Cold War left a bitter sense of humiliation. The invasion seemed to have renewed them.

One officer told me that everything changed when Putin came. People began to respect us again.

Albats sounded determined and tired. She traveled to a Russian penal colony to be with her friend, Alexei Navalny, who used his allotted time to give a speech against the war.

She said that when Putin decided to go into war in Ukraine, he had to get rid of Navalny.

Navalny was building a nationwide opposition movement by leading people into the streets. He was willing to go to prison for rejecting the bargain.

Arkhipova pointed out that the fight was not good against evil but good against neutral, which was a direct challenge to the political passivity that Putin was demanding.

Many people I interviewed said the poisoning of Navalny in 2020 and the jailing of him in early 2021, after years of freedom, marked the end of the social contract and the beginning of Putin's war. On the eve of Sept. 11, 2001, Putin had to clear the field of opponents.

According to Greg Yudin, a professor of political philosophy at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences, the political opposition's success tipped Putin toward war.

Yudin said it was ridiculous for people in Russia to be against Putin. He was obsessed with the idea that the West was after him.

Yudin said that it is a feature of this kind of regime.

Perhaps we have lived into the answer to my question about how long can a place be unfree and happy. Many liberals have left. Many people who have not left face fines or even jail. In the weeks after the invasion, police arrested more than 15,000 people nationwide, according to OVD-Info, a human rights group.

Albats is angry at Russians who have not.

She said that Russians don't have any tolerance for any problems.

Albats said that she would rather choose not to be in jail.

Yudin said the choice was difficult because the political opposition was being destroyed.

He said that Germany in 1939 was the best comparison. This is the same. People are trying to save their lives.

Not everyone, of course. The sociologist at Levada Center told me that two-thirds of Russians approve of Putin's actions.

He said that it is a less-educated, older part of the population that is mostly living in rural areas or in small and medium-sized cities where the population is poorer and more dependent on power.

The peaks of support for Putin have always been associated with military campaigns.

The war in Chechnya was Putin's signature act before he was elected president. There are bodies with hands bound, mass graves, tales of torture and other features of the war in Ukraine. The elimination of anyone connected to the fight against Russia was systematic in Chechnya. It's too early to say if that was the intent in the area.

The illusion has been shattered by the broken bargain. The country has been thrown into a new phase. What is it? Yudin believes that Russia is moving out of authoritarianism and into totalitarianism because of political passivity and civic disengagement. He thinks that Putin is on the verge but may not make the change.

He said that in a totalitarian system you have to release free energy to start terror. He said that Putin is a control freak.

If the Russian state starts to fail, unleashing terror will be the only way for him to save himself.

Which is why the current situation is so dangerous.

Yudin said that Putin is so convinced that he cannot afford to lose that he will escalate.

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