If Western countries stopped buying Russian oil and gas, Russia would stop military operations in Ukraine within a month or two, according to the former chief economic adviser.
The president was reassured by a steady flow of energy export revenue, which allowed him to continue the war, according to an interview with the BBC.
Illarionov said that if Western countries implemented a real embargo on oil and gas exports from Russia, then Russian military operations in Ukraine probably will be stopped within a month or two.
Russia's economy is expected to shrink by as much as 15% this year after Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on the country.
Russia would be spared complete economic devastation thanks to its strength with exports.
Russia is a major exporter of oil, gas, precious metals, and grain. The European Union gets most of its oil from Russia, according to the International Energy Agency.
Illarionov said that every two and a half days a billion dollars comes into Putin's pockets. That is very helpful for Putin to continue to keep his system running.
Putin will have to rethink his policies once this currency flow is interrupted because he won't have much resources to finance further aggression.
The US has promised to export more natural gas to the EU, which has pledged to wean themselves off Russian energy. The high prices of oil and natural gas mean Russia could make more money from energy exports in the future.