There are indications that public sentiment is getting worse, not better, posing a growing threat to Democrats, who are already slim chances of holding onto Congress.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey has been low for a long time. A survey by the Associated Press/NORC found that 70% of Americans think the economy is in poor shape, and a CNBC poll found that 81 percent of people think a recession is coming this year. According to Gallup, the top issue for Americans is inflation, which is at its highest level since the 1980s.
The big run-up in gas and food and home prices has caused great hardship for many households, according to Richard Curtin, an economist who has run the University of Michigan consumer survey since 1976. It wasn't permanent. A lot of people couldn't just survive. It caused a big loss of confidence in the policies of the President.
The window to change the economic narrative through executive action is rapidly closing according to a senior Biden aide and an outside adviser. Whatever can be done to ease oil prices is one of the options. That could only have a limited impact.
Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics and lead author of a closely followed model that ties political outcomes to economic conditions, said this is among the toughest environments for the incumbent party that he has ever seen.
Moody's is working on a model for the 2020 elections, and it is likely that Democrats will lose the House and the Senate.
He said that most Americans have never experienced high inflation like this, and that it has gotten everyone very upset. The Pandemic still colors everything. People have been through a lot.
Democrats inside and outside the White House don't have to worry about this. Efforts to free up more oil and ease supply chain bottlenecks will continue, according to a senior Biden aide who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
The president will point to the positives of the economy, including continued job growth, a large number of available positions, higher wages and a low unemployment rate. Most of those numbers are better than what economists were predicting a year ago.
The aide said that it would have been better if Putin had not invaded Ukraine. The White House didn't respond to requests for comment.
Before the war sent energy and food prices spiking even more, global markets were celebrating the end of the worst of the epidemic. Other indicators were moving in the administration's direction.
The economy looks like it will be a problem for Democrats, according to a University of Chicago professor who served as a top adviser to Barack Obama. Between now and Election Day in November, some things could happen.
There are still some positives for the White House, according to Goolsbee. The virus, which was way worse than expected, has been the primary driver. If we are going to get out from under the grip of the virus, that should reverse some of the sourness that is now in all the polling and consumer surveys.
According to the latest survey conducted by the AP and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Chicago, there is a lot to reverse.
A senior fellow in public affairs and media research at the NORC Center said in a note that 69 percent of people think the national economy is in poor condition. Americans think his policies hurt the national economy more than they help it.
A majority of Americans don't blame Biden for the higher gas prices, so that's a reason for optimism for Democrats. Most polling shows that Republicans are more likely to blame the president for economic problems. The survey said that people still feel confident in their own finances even though they worry about other people and the national picture. They worry a lot.
It is a tough road for Biden and the Democrats to hoe right now.
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