2 leading disease modelers predict low COVID rates this summer — but we may need new vaccines by fall

After more than two years of constant surprises, experts are hesitant to make predictions about what will happen next. Two of the smartest infectious disease modelers in the US are suggesting that we might get a break from COVID this summer.

The director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation told experts at a US Food and Drug Administration vaccine meeting on Wednesday that there may be little impact on Americans this spring and summer.

In the US, he said, we are peaking at 80% protection against Omicron.

The scientists believe there is good cross-protection from earlier Omicron infections towards the currently dominating BA.2 Omicron subvariant.

If you combine the immunity from earlier Omicron infections with immunity from other variant, you have a strong immunity soup cooking in the US.

The US looks set for a stable summer according to a top virus modeler.

Speaking at the FDA meeting this week, BEDFORD said that the variant of BA.2 should be the biggest thorn in our side over the next year, with it becoming more transmissible as it evolved. According to the IH ME, which Murray works for, the immunity of the globe will be at its most robust yet once the BA.2 wave is complete.

Dr. Barney Graham, one of the co-inventors of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, told Insider that upper airway exposures that cause very mild or no disease will boost the responses and keep you immune.

Murray will not completely rule out the possibility that the country will see more infections in the coming weeks. It is1-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-6556 It is1-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-65561-6556

We can't predict when a new variant might hit, but we are better prepared for it than we've ever been before

FDA VRBPAC April 6, 2022

Murray said that one key question modelers don't have good answers for is whether or not we will see a completely new variant orversion back to higher severity.

There is a chance for a large outbreak and lots of deaths if a new variant emerges this summer.

When Delta emerged last year, we were in a different place. The availability of anti-viral drugs could keep more people alive. There is a need for a more comprehensive multivalent vaccine that could target different genes at the same time.

We may get a better handle on how to model the next moves of the virus with time.

If the future of the disease becomes more predictable, we will be able to anticipate and prepare for the possible changes.

It has only been two years, which is a true blink in the eye of a virus's evolution. It is possible that this virus will evolve from BA.2 Omicron and take on more flu-like symptoms at this point.

If viral evolution continues to be driven by BA.2 or not, COVID cases could tick back up again in the fall, as people move indoors and Omicron immunity fades. Even if we sail through a peaceful summer, we will likely return to the same question: is it time for more boosters?