What does Amazon's attempt to dominate space mean for everyone else?

By Paul Marks

Amazon has become one of the busiest space-flight operators on the planet because of a large booking of satellite-launching rockets. Will the tech giant's attempt to corner much of the launch market quash the ambitions of smaller satellite operators, or will this light the fuse on a whole new generation of rocket firms?

Amazon surprised the space industry by revealing that it had placed the biggest set of orders in space-flight history, buying 83 rockets over the next five years to place more than 3000 internet satellites into low Earth orbit. The price is thought to be around $10 billion.

Amazon is hoping to provide global internet access to areas of the world that are not served by traditional wired telecommunications firms. Greg Sadlier says that Amazon is way behind on the competitive curve.

The sheer size of the rocket orders placed by Amazon is raising questions over how much launch capacity will remain for other would-be satellite operators. Sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine have made it impossible for Western firms to use Soyuz rockets as a satellite launch option.

What is left for everyone else if Amazon has absorbed most of the launch capability? Hugh Lewis is a space scientist at the University ofSouthampton in the UK.

With the scale of Amazon's order reducing launch availability for others, this could be of particular concern for operators who want to replace remote sensing and Earth observation satellites when they reach the end of their lives.

One option could be to purchase a ride on rockets launched by the Japanese or Indian space agencies, but this generally only works if customers are happy for their satellites to be placed in the same orbit as the primary payloads, which is usually dictated by the government. China has its own rockets, but only offers ride-shares to domestic firms.

A raft of companies are developing a new generation of rockets that are designed to launch smallsats. More than 180 potential vehicles are listed by the NewSpace Index, but more than 80% are still in the development or concept stages.

There are start-ups in the US and the UK that are entering the smallsat rocket market. Amazon is going to launch two test versions of its Project Kuiper internet satellites on an ABL Space Systems rocket later this year.

Amazon may have done the smallsat rocket-makers a favor by forcing other operators to seek a ride elsewhere. They will need to rise to the challenge of meeting the demand, says Sadlier.

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