Bucha horrors make U.S. and EU reconsider options to hit Putin

Axios

The United States and European leaders promised to respond to the discoveries of mass graves and other apparent atrocities in suburban Kyiv with harsher penalties for Putin.

Europe's reliance on Russian energy and NATO's refusal to risk war beyond Ukraine's borders made Western sanctions and arms shipments come in fast after the invasion. If only slightly, their calculations may be shifting.

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Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, said Monday that the U.S. will impose new sanctions after the discovery of war crimes. There were people with their hands bound who had been shot at close range.

Sullivan claimed that was part of the plan for a Russian regime intent on imposing a reign of terror across occupied territories.
Russia is pulling back near the Ukrainian capital. Sullivan said that Russia was shifting its focus to the east, hoping to surround and overwhelm the Ukrainian forces there.
Russian officials and state media have denied responsibility for the massacre and in some cases accused Ukraine of carrying it out.

The U.S. has already hit many of the obvious targets for sanctions, but steps such as removing all Russian banks from the SWIFT transaction system or enforcing secondary sanctions on oil exports are still possible.

The next moves on sanctions may be consequential.

French PresidentEmmanuelMacron came out in favor of new sanctions on Russian oil and coal, but didn't mention Russian gas, which is 40% of Europe's supply.

EU countries have paid Russia more than $20 billion for fossil fuels since the invasion began, and Russia is projected to earn $320.7 billion from energy exports this year.
There is growing support for a sanctions package that would ban oil and coal imports.
The first EU country to completely stop imports of Russian gas is Lithuania.

More U.S. weapons, including drones and armored vehicles, are on their way as part of a package announced Friday. Sullivan said there would be more shipments soon.

NATO countries are showing increasing willingness to provide weapons that could allow Ukraine to go on the offensive.
The types of aircraft and air defense systems that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been lobbying for have yet to be provided. A plan to send missile defense systems from Slovakia to Ukraine appears to have fallen through.

President Biden said Monday that he would help document evidence for a future war crimes trial against Putin by providing Ukraine with weapons to continue its fight.

The challenge is going to be to prove who was responsible, and how high does this go, according to a former International Criminal Court prosecutor.
It would be important to have investigators on the ground as soon as possible to talk to witnesses to find out who gave the orders.

Go deeper.

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