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The Mayor of San Francisco, London Breed, joined the Senior White House Correspondent of Yahoo News for a one-on-one discussion about her controversial plan to direct emergency resources to crack down on crime. In December, Breed, a Democrat, attracted national attention after declaring a more aggressive stance against what she described as the bulls**t that has destroyed our city. I don't want anyone to get hurt.

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A new study shows that murder rates in cities run by Republicans are higher than in cities run by Democrats.

At a March 26 rally in Georgia, former President Donald Trump claimed that people are afraid to go out.

In February, Cotton blamed Democrats for a law that reduced some federal prison sentences even though it was signed by Trump.

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Former President Donald Trump at a rally at a rally on March 26 in Commerce, Georgia, in front of a sign reading
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at a rally on March 26 in Commerce, Ga. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

A comparison of violent crime rates in jurisdictions controlled by Democrats and Republicans shows a very different story. A new study shows that states that voted for Trump have higher murder rates than those that voted for Biden. The study found that the highest murder rates are in conservative, rural states.

Murder rates in the 25 states Trump carried in 2020 are 40% higher than in the states Biden won. 2020 data is not yet fully available, so the report used it. Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, and Missouri all voted for Trump.

New Mexico and Georgia have the seventh and eighth highest murder rates in the country, and they are two of the states that Biden won in 2020. Idaho and Utah have low murder rates. The study found that the South and Midwest have more murders per capita than the Northeast, interior West and West Coast.

The South has had higher rates of violent crime than the nation as a whole for decades.

Demonstrators march in Atlanta, Georgia, in 2021 to protest the shooting death of Daunte Wright.
Demonstrators march in Atlanta, Ga., on April 14, 2021, to protest the shooting death of Daunte Wright three days earlier. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

According to a professor of criminology at Indiana University Southeast, states like Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama have historically had high crime rates.

Research shows that areas with low average education levels, high rates of poverty and relatively modest access to government assistance have higher rates of violent crime. Some parts of the American South have those conditions.

The Deep South has the highest rates of child poverty. They are among the least educated states. They have the highest levels of substance abuse. People engaging in criminal behavior are influenced by all of those factors.

Richard Rosenfeld is a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri-St. Louis is a former president of the American Society of Criminology. I'm not sure if it's related to the fact that the governor is a Republican, but it is a fact nonetheless.

Police and emergency personnel work on a crime scene in November 21 in Waukesha, Wisconsin.
Police and emergency personnel work on a crime scene in November 2021 in Waukesha, Wisc. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

The Third Way study divided states by presidential vote in 2020, but using gubernatorial party affiliation leads to similar results because most states have recently chosen the same party for governor and president. Eight of the 10 states with the highest murder rates lean Republican, compared to seven of the top 10 if one uses the governor's party.

The Great Plains and Midwest saw the biggest increases in murder rates in 2020. The largest jumps were in Wyoming, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska all have Republican governors. Democrats voted for Biden in Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Only 26 of the 100 largest U.S. cities have Republican mayors. The study found that cities with Republican mayors have lower murder rates than similarly sized Democrat-led cities.

Some experts warn against using crime data to score points.

Being a Republican or Democratic state is correlated with many other issues, according to David Weisburd, a professor of criminology and executive director of the Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy at George. It is difficult to get a valid result for explaining crime rates with a very comprehensive modeling of all of these factors.

Police tape blocks a street where a person was shot in a drug-related incident in Philadelphia in 2021.
Police tape blocks a street where a person was shot in a drug-related incident in Philadelphia in 2021. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

The argument cuts both ways. Weisburd thinks the claims of Trump and other Republicans that Democrats have caused a crime wave in the cities and states they govern are not true.

Murder rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2020 from record lows, and the increases are similar across states. Third Way found a rise in homicides in states that voted for Trump compared to those that voted for Biden. New York and Pennsylvania, two states with large cities, saw larger-than-average increases. The largest increases were in rural states, including Montana and South Dakota.

The violent crime rate is lower than it was in the early 1990s, despite the higher murder rate. The murder rate increased from 6 homicides per 100,000 people to 7.8 homicides per 100,000, but it was still 22% below the rate in 1991.

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