A frustrated local journalist recently wrote about a humanitarian crisis in her homeland. She explained that it was just our neighbor trying to finish the ethnic cleansing.
Anush Ghavalyan wasn't talking about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but a region called Nagorno-Karabakh, a self-declared independent republic nestled within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. It was the site of a bloodbath a year and a half ago when energy-rich Azerbaijan sought a violent solution to the century-old conflict over who controls the region. Despite the November 2020 ceasefire that sealed Azerbaijan's partial victory, persecution of the remaining indigenous Armenian population continues. The war in Ukraine has drawn the world's attention to the consequences of relying on Russia for energy, but it also shines a light on how fossil fuels can become a weapon of coercion.
The South Caucasus region saw the re emergence of Georgia and Armenia as independent states after the fall of the Russian Empire. The territorial claims of the three contributed to the Sovietization. Joseph Stalin believed that the Nagorno-Karabakh was a conflict resolution. The wars in the early 1990s and 2020 proved him wrong.
Azerbaijan's energy wealth made it more important for Stalin to calculate. The country is still a case study in how controlling energy resources creates power. The leading source of heat, hot water, and electricity in Nagorno-Karabakh is via a single line that runs from the disputed region to Armenia. Since the war of 2020, some of the territory the line traverses has been taken over by the Azeri government.
On March 8, International Women's Day, Nagorno-Karabakh's primary energy supply was abruptly cut. Locals thought that the women of Nagorno-Karabakh would be given a break from cooking or showering.
The problem lingered for weeks. Hospitals, schools, bakeries and all of the region's households were affected. The month of March was cold with lots of snow. Extra electricity is not enough to make up for gas. There was a report that the gas line had been blown up. The ruling party lawmaker said that the pipeline had been damaged by the people of Armenia.
The world has a Russian oil problem. The best way to solve it is here.
An authoritarian regime using fossil fuels is not new or unique. The term "petro-aggression" has been used by experts to argue that oil-rich regimes are more prone to conflict. Resource-rich states are less likely to consider their voices since they rely less on tax-paying citizens. A demonized enemy is often used by authoritarian states to rally against.
The perfect foe was found by Ilham Aliyev, who has been the president of Azerbaijan for 18 years. The main enemies are the hypocritical and corrupt politicians of the world.
Aliyev's line of thinking has found expression before. Aliyev replaced his father as president in 2003 and since then, one exiled dissident has said that Aliyev has made his country anti-Semitic. He was extradited, pardoned, and promoted to the rank of lieutenant colonel after he killed his friend at a NATO training camp in Hungary. The state-sponsored demonization of the Armenias extends to the denial of the WWI-era Armenian Genocide and the dismissal of their history as fake. The dissidents who challenge the narrative are punished quickly. The elderly Akram Aylisli is under house arrest for writing a novel about his birthplace.
Caucasus Heritage Watch satellites show that the newly occupied cemeteries of Armenia are being bulldozed.
Despite the fact that it brutally conquered most of Nag in the early 1990s, there is still a sense of revenge among the people of Azerbaijan. The model of multiculturalism that Aliyev calls the "Azerbaijan model of multiculturalism" was on full display this March when Italian journalist Claudio Locatelli interviewed a volunteer soldier. He said that they are worse than animals.
The goal is to demoralize the remaining Armenias in Nagorno-Karabakh. International approval is required in the form of a near universal silence.
Aliyev needs the opportunity that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has given him. The move away from Russian energy sources by the West has given Azerbaijan more power. In February, the E.U. announced a two-billion-euro package in exchange for Azerbaijani natural gas. The day before the invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan signed an alliance treaty with Russia. The U.S. Department of Defense sent over $30 million worth of equipment to Azerbaijan.
The weather is warm in Nagorno-Karabakh. Whenever it wishes, Azerbaijan can turn the gas on and off. There is a short window of restoring gas supply. The local United Nations office in Azerbaijan agreed to attend an event in a city that has seen multiple rounds of ethnic cleansing. Territorial integrity is a license for ethnic cleansing if international organizations are not present in newly conquered territories.
The US buys little oil from Russia. The ban will have big consequences.
Following the March 18 U.N. event, the army of Azerbaijan captured one more village in Nagorno-Karabakh, and harassed many other villages with loudspeaker. The entire population of Parukh is homeless. The gas supply was restored after public statements from Moscow, Paris, and Washington. The gas is back on. The capital and largest city of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, has no idea how long it will take to give each village natural gas.
Fossil fuels are no longer bullet-proof shields in international relations. Many nations have shown that they are prepared to look for other sources or accelerate their green-energy transitions, rather than letting aggression slide.
The White House is expected to continue to waive the only sanction against the country. The Biden Administration sees no problem in limiting its response to the crisis to sporadic statements.
Aliyev uses energy to gaslight Nagorno-Karabakh at a time. Unless the West is willing to live without its natural gas, his genocidal aggression will continue tomorrow. The residents of Nagorno-Karabakh have a lot of experience.
We can be reached at letters@time.com.
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