Outside my lab in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, there are new animal tracks on the snow, bird songs are flying through the air, and the creek is flowing with water from the melting snow. Spring has arrived early in the Sierra Nevada.
Over the course of a week, I joined teams of other scientists to gather the most important measurements of the Sierra Nevada snowpack. The most snow of any measurement throughout the year can be found in this measurement. California's snowpack is now 39 percent of average, or 23 percent lower than at the same point last year, thanks to the results of the 2022. This shows that the western United States is already the worst in 1,200 years, and that another potentially catastrophic fire season is on the horizon.
Many people think that the lack of rain and snow is the reason for the dry spell. That is accurate to an extent. Climate change and human activity are affecting the available water and its management. Our most important tools for managing water are becoming less and less accurate as more and more fires batter the land. Our reliance on these models to try to make the most of the little water we have is becoming more and more problematic.
It can take several years or even a decade for a dry spell. The soil can become so dry that it can absorb all the new water, which reduces the amount of water that goes into the water system. The soil can become so dry that the surface becomes hard and repels water, which can cause flooding. We used to rely on relatively short periods of rain or snow to relieve dry conditions, but that is no longer the case.
It would take many storms with near record-breaking amounts of rain or snow in a single year to make a difference. December was the snowiest month on record at the snow lab, thanks to two atmospheric rivers that hit California. The November and January to March periods were extremely dry, leaving us with another below average year of precipitation.
Climate change is expected to increase this type of winter with big storms and long dry periods. We will need multiple above-average rain and snow years to make up the difference rather than a single large event.
Changes to the land surface are a challenge even with normal or above-average precipitation years. Massive wildfires, such as those in the Sierra Nevada and the Rockies in the last few years, cause a change in the way snow and water melt in the mountains. Increased wind speeds and temperatures can result from the loss of forest canopy, which can affect the amount of snow water in the lake.
Fire can alter soil properties and cause flash flooding during intense periods of rain. Increased demand on the water supply, landscape changes, and feast-or-famine precipitation patterns are making water management in the West a precarious and difficult task.
The models developed by the National Weather Service, the Army Corps of Engineers, and the California Department of Water Resources are some of the most important tools for managing water during periods of dry weather. The models are in dire need of an update because they suffer from the same simplistic view of water.
The climate, snow melt patterns and land surfaces have all changed since the models were developed, which means they are missing important pieces of the water puzzle. Shrinking funding for science and engineering prevented updates to the models for decades.
Severe shortages in a worst-case scenario can be caused by models not being able to tell water managers how much rain and snow will run off the land. If there is a discrepancy between the water expected and the water that arrives, it could mean the difference between having water in the taps or running dry.
We are looking at a loaded gun with water resources in the West. Rather than investing in body armor, we've been hoping that thetrigger won't be pulled. The current water monitoring and modeling strategies aren't enough to support the increasing number of people that need water. I am worried about the next week, month, year, and about new problems that we will inevitably face as climate change continues and water becomes more unpredictable.
It is time for policymakers who allocate funding to invest in updating our water models rather than hoping for the best. Large-scale investment in the agencies that maintain and develop these models is paramount to preparing for the future of water in the West.
Better water models mean more accurate management of water, and that will lead to greater water security and availability for the millions of people who now depend on the changing water supply. It is an investment in our future and in our ability to continue to live in the water-scarce regions of the West. It's the only way to make sure we're prepared when the time is right.
Dr. Schwartz is the station manager at the University of California, Berkeley.
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