Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was on track to win a fourth election, giving a boost to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The vote count began after the polls closed, with Orban set to win a majority of the parliamentary seats.
He said that the victory would be remembered until the end of his life, because of enemies including the international media, the Ukrainian president and the Hungarian left.
There is one notable exception to the fact that the E.U. is against Russia.
It was an election that was supposed to be dominated by Hungary's poor healthcare system, but it turned out to be more of a referendum on the government.
Peter Marki-Zay wanted to bring the nation closer to the E.U. and highlight Orban's historic links with Putin. Orban argued that keeping Hungary out of the war in Ukraine would hurt the European economy. The future looks tough for Orban, though he prevailed.
Andras Bozoki, professor of political science at the Central European University in Vienna, says that Orban will have a difficult time in Europe after the election.
Less-educated rural voters support Orban, while more educated urbanites support the opposition. It was always going to be a test of who could mobilize their base and get the undecided to vote. The turnout was thought to be 70%.
Despite a population that is pro-E.U., Hungary's government under Orban has leaned toward the Kremlin. State media in Hungary has been parroting Putin's justification for the invasion. Orban has not denounced Putin by name but he does oppose the war in Ukraine. NATO weapons were not allowed to be transported through his territory. Although Orban didn't oppose the E.U. sanctions on Russian kleptocrats, he vowed to block any targeting of Russian oil or gas.
Orban is a security risk for allies. According to an investigation by Direkt36, a Budapest-based non-profit investigative journalism center, Russia's Federal Security Service completely compromised Hungary's Foreign Ministry computer network and internal correspondence by mid-2021. The Foreign Minister of Russia received the highest state honor for a foreigner on December 3.
Despite the unfavorable global and regional developments, we have been able to maintain our cooperation with Moscow based on mutual trust and our national interests.
The majority of younger Hungarians are against Putin.
Independent election monitors were dispatched to ensure a fair and free election. Even before the first vote was cast, it was clear this would be an uphill challenge for Marki-Zay, a political neophyte whose only public role to date was as the mayor of a small town.
The deck was stacked against Marki-Zay, who had previously worked in Canada and the U.S., initially as a door-to-door salesman. The dad-of-seven was only given five minutes the entire campaign, whilst Orban was always broadcasting his news reports.
Posters for the government were indistinguishable from those for Orban's party. The media environment and campaign finances were very skewed by Orban allies.
Hungary is moving toward authoritarianism. Can the Mayor save it?
In Hungary, Orban is protected by a group of billionaires who have grown obscenely wealthy on the back of government ties. The richest person in Hungary is a childhood friend of Orban who worked as a gas fitter in Felcsut. Konzum was the world's best performing stock in 2017, thanks to a continuous stream of state contracts.
Orban offered more populist policies than Marki-Zay did. A key block of 2.5 million voters were given 13th month of income for retirees in February. Under 25 year olds have been exempt from personal income tax. Parents with children got tax refunds while soldiers and police officers got salary hikes. The public worker scheme for unemployed received a pay boost.
The University of Vienna's Plescia said she was surprised that the economy didn't play a role in the election. The nation's budget deficit swelled to 8.1% of GDP in 2020 as a result of the Pandemic, with inflation reaching an almost 15-year high in February.
Hungary has been kicked out of the European Parliament's grouping under Orban. His attempts to form an alternative right-wing bloc of populist parties with Poland's PiS party and Italy's Matteo Salvini also failed. He has been excluded by the Visegr Group, a cultural and political alliance of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia to advance military, cultural, economic and energy co-operation.
Marki-Zay's victory would have been bad news for Putin, as the opposition candidate said he would go along with whatever the E.U. decided. The International Investment Bank, which was founded by the Soviets in 1970 but which moved its headquarters from Moscow to Budapest in the last year, has been accused of espionage. The Czech Republic accelerated its planned withdrawal after the invasion of Ukraine. Marki-Zay said that he would review the expansion of the paks nuclear plant, which is funded by Russia.
Although good news for Putin, Orb's victory is bad news for Hungarians. In February, the European Court of Justice threw out a legal challenge from Hungary and Poland regarding a rule of law conditionality. Hungary is due to lose subsidies equivalent to 4% of GDP at a time when its economy is facing serious challenges.
Orb was lucky that he was the defender of peace and safety at the time of war in a neighboring country. The shadow of economic crisis will be Orb's real enemy after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Charlie Campbell can be reached at charlie.campbell@time.com.
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