Are we ready for the new world order?
The title of the panel that lead off the World Government Summit last week was provocative and suggested that a new global order is not ready for it.
There has been a lot of writing about who will shape the future world order since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine.
The conclusion is that the U.S.- and Europe-backed forces will regain their footing against the Russian- Chinese forces of authoritarianism, oppression and evil if Ukraine remains a free and democratic country.
That sounds good, but there is a downside.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and a series of COVID-related shutdowns in China do not appear to have much in common, according to Michael Schuman in The Atlantic.
At the World Government Summit and the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum, my conversations show little enthusiasm or conviction for this vision of the future. The participants in the Middle East don't want to abandon relations with China or break with Russia, both of which helped save Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The Mideast partners have lost confidence in America's commitment to global leadership after last year's debacle in Afghanistan.
I have traveled to the Mideast many times and have never heard of this level of frustration from the officials there.
They are interested in the outcome of the Ukrainian election because a victory would force a rethink about U.S. commitment and competence and shift the trajectory of declining transatlantic influence and relevance. Even at a huge cost to Russians and Ukrainians alike, a Putin victory would accelerate Western decline as an effective global actor.
Henry Kissinger questioned the premise of the new world order.
The question is not what the new world order would be, but if the U.S. and its allies can reverse the erosion of the past century.
The fourth attempt at international order in the past century was made by the former U.S. national security advisor.
The Treaty of Versailles and the League of Nations was the first attempt after World War I. The world got European fascists, U.S. isolationism, and millions dead from the Holocaust and World War II.
The United States and its partners were successful in building the liberal international order after World War II.
European democracies emerged or were restored, NATO was enlarged, the European Union expanded, and it seemed for a time that the rules, practices, and institutions developed in the West after World War II. China profited from this order for a while.
The U.S. leaders have eroded their commitment to defend, uphold and advance that expanded international order.
After World War II and the end of the Cold War, American foreign policy leadership was consistent. The inconsistencies have grown, underscored by former President Barack Obama and former President Donald Trump.
Both were retreats from former President Harry Truman, and the post-World War II architecture and U.S. global leadership he established and embraced.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are hedging their bets in the Middle East. The failure of former President Trump to accept his electoral defeat raises doubts about the reliability of the American political system and the consistency of U.S. foreign policy.
The Biden administration's characterization of the emerging global contest as one pitting democracy versus authoritarianism is disliked by our Mideast friends.
Every democratic attempt in the Arab world has turned into a tribal one, so I'm not sure we can work it out successfully, according to the diplomatic adviser to the president. He sees the issues between democracy and authoritarianism as something in the middle of both.
The release of 180 million barrels of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was an acknowledgment that America's traditional oil- producing partners were. The decision came hours after the organization ignored calls from western politicians to pump oil more quickly.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited New Delhi this week to thank India for its refusal to join sanctions against Russia.
To shape the future world order, the U.S. and Europe need to reverse the decline in democratic values in Ukraine.
The rest will have to follow.
Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.
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