Nancy Caywood stopped her truck along an empty canal and pointed to a field of dead alfalfa on the land where Pinal County farmers have irrigated crops for thousands of years.
Caywood is a third-generation farmer who manages over 200 acres of land outside of Phoenix.
Farming in the desert has always been a challenge for Arizona's farmers, who grow water-intensive crops like cotton, alfalfa and corn for cows. This year is different. The first-ever cuts to their water supply from the Colorado River were prompted by an intensifying dry spell.
The canals that bring water from eastern Arizona to Caywood's family farm have dried up. The farm will soon be less productive. Caywood is not receiving water because of a recent price hike.
Caywood said that they are not making any money off this farm right now.
The Colorado River is used by more than 40 million people in the West. In Pinal County, the farmers are the hardest hit this year because agriculture is being replaced by solar panels and housing developments.
An empty irrigation canal runs along an alfalfa field owned by Caywood Farms, a cotton farm near Casa Grande, Arizona.Driving through Casa Grande, a city of over 50,000 people that is halfway between Phoenix and Tucson, you will see miles of unplanted land, dead cotton fields and dry canals.
Farmers here fear more water restrictions in the coming weeks as a warming climate continues to reduce the amount of water that typically fills the Colorado River from rainfall and melting snow.
After water levels fell to historic lows, the Bureau of Reclamation declared a water shortage at Lake Mead. More than one-third of Arizona's water comes from the Colorado River.
The Tier 1 water reductions slashed the state's river water supply by nearly 20%. Two households get one acre-foot of water each year.
Farmers in Arizona use most of the water supply to irrigate their crops. Some farmers in Pinal County sold their land to solar developers because they couldn't afford to operate anymore. Others have left fields empty to cut down on water use.
Dead cotton fields span for miles in Pinal County, Arizona, as farmers reckon with mandatory water cuts.Arizona's groundwater supplies are already overused, so there are those who started pumping more.
When Caywood's grandfather signed the land in 1930, he was drawn in by cheap prices and technological developments that allowed for water to be transported from canals connected to the San Carlos reservoir more than 100 miles away.
Last year, the San Carlos was completely empty.
Caywood said there was always a chance of rain or snow in the East. We throw our hands up and say, "We're done."
Arizona's climate doesn't have enough rain to grow most crops. The state's $23 billion agriculture industry has been supported for thousands of years by the rivers and aquifers.
Climate change has wreaked havoc on the once prosperous farms that could endure the arid conditions. The U.S. West has had two driest decades in at least 1,200 years due to a megadrought. Climate change can be blamed for 42% of the severity of the drought, according to scientists.
The consequences can be far-reaching. Increased food prices for consumers across the country will be caused by a long-term dry spell in Arizona.
Caywood's parents died last year and she wants to continue their legacy. Nancy frequently conducts farm tours to educate people about the water crisis. Her son has leased plots in other irrigation districts that have access to Colorado River water.
Farmer Nancy Caywood meets with Julie Murphree, outreach director for the Arizona Farm Bureau, in Casa Grande, Arizona.Caywood continues to plant as much as possible, but watches closely as neighboring farmland is converted into solar panel developments. She thinks that her farm could close in three years.
Caywood said the question was can we pay for everything that goes into the crop. Probably not. Will we make ends meet? We don't know. It's very difficult.
The Tier 1 water restrictions may not be enough to sustain the levels of the dam. The Colorado River Basin's water levels dropped to their lowest level on record last year. Lake Powell and Lake Mead have lost 50% of their capacity in five years.
Bradley Udall is a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. He said that scientists have been warning about the decline in the West for at least four decades.
Udall said that it felt inevitable that we reached this point.
A half-hour away from the Caywood property, fourth-generation farmer Will Thelander is operating part of his family's 6,000 acres in Pinal County.
Thelander, who farms crops like corn, wheat, and alfalfa, lost half of his water supply this year. Cotton is a particularly water-intensive crop, and he has stopped growing it.
Farmer Will Thelander stands in a newly planted corn field in Casa Grande, Arizona.He doesn't expect the water shortage problem to get better, and warns that farmers will only be able to pump for so long.
Anticipating more water cuts, Thelander has placed all his hopes in a plant that can be used in rubber production. Thelander was able to plant 25 acres of the crop on his farm because of the research he was doing for the tire company.
Guayule uses half the amount of water as alfalfa. It could save a lot of water. Roughly 100,000 acres of guayule production in the area could be converted to other crops to save 150,000 acre-feet of water each year, according to preliminary estimates.
Thelander said that there was no way to make more water.
Not a lot of things like the desert, he said.
Guayule shrubs, located at Tempe Farming Co. in Casa Grande, Arizona, are drought-tolerant plants that can be harvested and used in rubber production.Thelander's farm lost 20% of its revenue this year due to the high prices of supplies such as hay. Thelander is not sure about the future of farming in Arizona.
He told people who wanted to farm to look for a different career. It's not going to happen.
Arizona has several options to get water. The state wants to import water from other parts of the state and lease water from Indian tribes with higher priority water rights.
A proposal by the state of Arizona involves desalinating water from the Sea of Cortez, which is 50 miles across Mexico from the southern border. Critics said that the plan was evading the need for water saving.
Water leaders in Arizona, Nevada and California signed an agreement in December to cut their usage of Colorado River water in order to delay more cuts. The plan requires states to cut half a million acres of water in the next two years.
Farmer Will Thelander walks through his wheat field in Casa Grande, Arizona.Phoenix, one of the hottest and driest regions of the country, gets a lot of its water from the Colorado River. Under that plan, the city is going to lose some river water.
Cynthia Campbell, Phoenix's water resource management adviser, said the department has never had to consider issues like this before.
Campbell said in a meeting at Phoenix City Hall that the American West is a canary in the coal mine for climate change.
Caywood hopes that the new infrastructure funding will go to updating her aging wells and canals.
President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan infrastructure bill in November that could help Arizona farmers deal with the water crisis. There is funding for western water projects in the legislation.
We need to protect American farms. Caywood said that if we don't, we'll find ourselves cut off from food supply. We are fighting to stay in the game.
A changing climate and dwindling water supplies have wreaked havoc in Casa Grande, Arizona.