COVID, Quickly is a Scientific American podcast series.
This is a quick update on the COVID Pandemic. We will show you the science behind the questions about the disease and the virus. We help you understand the research.
I'm Tanya Lewis.
Josh Fischman is the person.
We will talk about the plan for a second vaccine booster shot today.
The prospects of a new COVID wave and whether people will put on masks to stop it.
How to think about carbon risk in everyday activities.
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The FDA authorized a second booster shot this week, on top of the one given last year. That would be four shots for me. Why is this new one different?
Josh: It happened sooner than I expected, Lewis, although the scientific community had been debating whether additional booster shots were needed for some time. Normally, the FDA holds a meeting of its advisory committee before deciding whether to authorize vaccines or boosters, but that didn't happen this time.
Adults age 50 and older and anyone 12 and older who has been treated for an immune deficiency are now able to get boosters. This would be the fourth shot for people who had two shots and a booster. This would be the fifth shot for some people.
That is a bunch of jabs. The FDA thinks we need a new one.
It was based on evidence that the immune protection against severe disease waned over time in these groups. Four months after a third dose, the protection against hospitalization waned from 92 percent to 78 percent.
Some experts don't think a second booster shot will improve immunity. We may see diminishing returns at a certain point with additional shots, but it may be worth it for a few months.
It is important for those who haven't gotten their first booster to do that. If you are older or higher risk, you might want to consider getting a second booster after four months.
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Many people have dropped their masks, and health officials are allowing it. Will people put them on again if a new surge comes?
The question is important because we know masks stop infections. You pointed out that the effectiveness of a good mask like an N95 is beyond dispute.
We will face more evidence. In Europe, infections and hospitalizations have begun to rise. In the U.S., the new BA.2 variant is becoming more common and we have cut back on masks and restrictions. We are likely to see a spike, surge, or whatever you want to call it. It is not clear how big it will be.
According to the CDC, if it gets above a certain level, we should put masks back on. If the number of cases in your area increases by 20 in a week, then you should wear a mask indoors.
Lewis said that masks aren't just health aids. They have become political symbols during the Pandemic. Some people are pro-mask and others are against them.
Fischman is absolutely correct. How will that play out in the future? Emily Mendenhall is a medical anthropologist at Georgetown University. She published a book based on her research in Iowa and California.
On an earlier episode, Emily talked about masks. She says anti-mask feelings are related to low disease risk. If they weren't worried about themselves, people would come forward. Maybe they didn't think the disease would make them sick when they were younger. Part of it was political. People don't want governments to dictate their behavior. They were worried about their ability to make a living. It was a show of defiance. The masks got caught up in it.
The pro-mask feelings came from the idea that we faced a risk. Emily says that people in the street talk about the need to protect one another. They trusted the government guidelines and felt in danger as individuals.
Collective worries have faded as the Pandemic has worn on. mask-wearing has faded with them People in those areas are not likely to put masks back on.
About 1 in 3 people in Emily's research are sometime maskers. They are all political moderates. They say that sometimes government does a good job. Sometimes the media is trustworthy, other times not. Sometimes they wear a mask. There are a lot of Americans who would wear a mask if they were around someone with a weak immune system.
The focus should be on maskers. If COVID starts to peak in their communities, they will be willing to mask promotion. Emily says it is a sizeable group. Making mask-wearing seem normal, especially in times of danger, is key.
Emily understands that there is a lot of resistance to mandates. If thesemaskers put on N95s, there would be a surge of protection.
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As we head into Pandemic Year Three, people are tired of being restricted. Many people want to get back to doing things they enjoy. As we venture out more often, is there a way to evaluate the risks?
Josh, we are definitely getting to the point where people are tired of wearing masks and avoiding people and places they enjoy. The virus isn't likely to go away soon. There will always be some level of risk, but we have to balance it with benefits.
Sri De-va-bhak-tuni is working on a story for us. He asked experts in epidemiology, risk assessment, and related fields how they make their own decisions.
They said that we can think about risk in three different ways: personal risk, community risk and the likelihood of seeing someone with Covid.
According to Jetelina, age is the biggest personal risk factor, followed by having certain comorbidities or being immunocompromised. She believes that people in their 60s have a 10 times higher chance of dying from a breakthrough case than people their age. People at higher risk should talk to their doctor about their risks. If you wear an N95 mask, you may be able to do some activities that are safe.
In other words, the risk that the person next to you has cancer. You can look at things like daily cases per 100,000 residents if you want to understand the risk. Jetelina considers a figure below 50 cases per 100,000 to be a lower risk. Others use a lower threshold. The test positivity rate may be a better measure since not everyone with COVID is getting tested. High risk is anything over 5 percent.
What about different settings, like bars or movie theaters? Do you think where you are affects risk?
Lewis: That's correct. Some settings are safer than others. You might be more or less comfortable doing certain things in certain settings depending on your personal and community risk levels.
Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech and an expert on airborne transmission of viruses, says that Gyms are probably one of the highest risk places because people are exercising and expelling more aerosols. Bars may be crowded and have a lot of people talking loudly. The higher the ceilings, the safer museums and movie theaters are.
If you go to a bar or restaurant and want to protect yourself, experts say you can wear a mask and take sips or bites without increasing the risk. If they are well-fitting to your face, N95s protect you pretty well.
You have to decide at the end of the day how to balance the risks with the benefits of doing the things that make life worth living.
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Lewis: Now you are up to speed. Our show is edited by Jeff Del Viscio.
Come back in two weeks for the next episode. You can find updated and in-depth COVID news atSciAm.com.
The above text is a transcript.
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