The Football News Show: Why Ten Hag might choose another club over Man Utd

Manchester United are likely to have a new manager in charge this summer to replace the one who was sacked.

Which candidates should United hire? They have already spoken to the likes of Barcelona's Luis Enrique, Sevilla's Thomas Tuchel, Paris St-Germain's Mauricio Pochettino and Real Madrid's Carlo Ancelotti.

Each candidate has been assessed by Carteret to see who would do the best job, and what each boss would offer.

Carteret predicts that United would finish second next season, but they would probably advise them to put Enrique at the top of their list.

They say that some of his metrics are so good that they outweigh the risk that he has not managed a club in almost five years.

The most recent permanent manager, Solskjaer, would have been projected to lead United to seventh place next season according to the analysts.

Here are the managers and their credentials, listed in order of their ranking and predicted finish, along with some additional data from Opta.

Managers who know how to win matches: Enrique, Ten Hag, Pochettino, Ancelotti
Best options for attacking football: Enrique, Pochettino
Best options for possession-based football: Enrique, Ten Hag, Conte

Thomas Tuchel (Chelsea)

Thomas Tuchel
Tuchel had the highest 'normalised Carteret manager rating', factoring in recent experience and in different leagues

Predicted finish is second.

The uncertainty over the future of the Blues has led to more reports linking Tuchel to the Old United job.

After replacing Frank Lampard, the German led the Blues to the European Championship six months later. They are in the running for the FA Cup.

In two-and-a-half years, Tuchel won a German Cup, led Paris St-Germain to a French treble and a second Ligue 1 title, as well as a Champions League final.

James Powell, chief executive officer of the Carteret Group, says that Tuchel is most likely to achieve the highest league position with the current Manchester United squad.

He is very good at setting up his team to achieve a high probability of winning the next match, but only has an average tactical command rating, suggesting that he is not as capable of turning an in-match position into a better position or win.

Antonio Conte (Spurs)

Antonio Conte
Conte has been Spurs' manager for exactly half a Premier League season

Predicted finish is second.

A serial winner is an Italian named Conte.

He has won five league titles in the last four years, with three of them being with the same team.

Since November, when he became Spurs manager, he has taken them from eighth to fifth.

Carteret says that Conrad is interesting because his individual metrics are not the most exceptional in the sample of managers.

He has a high attacking coefficients which might be attractive to Manchester United supporters.

Average possession in league this season

Carlo Ancelotti (Real Madrid)

Carlo Ancelotti
Most of Carlo Ancelotti's statistics are much better at Real Madrid this season than Everton in the last campaign

Predicted finish is third.

The most experienced manager on this list is Italian Carlo Ancelotti.

He has won the competition with AC Milan and Real Madrid.

In Italy, England, France, and Germany, Carlo Ancelotti has won a league title, and he is likely to win La Liga with Real this season.

The objective view from the quantitative analysis is that he is very good at understanding how to win matches, which is why the Manchester United supporters may be disappointed if he was appointed as manager.

Erik ten Hag (Ajax)

Erik ten Hag
Erik ten Hag's only experience outside the Netherlands was a spell as Bayern Munich's reserve-team boss

Predicted finish is third.

Ten Hag has been in charge of the town. He led them to the Dutch double and the semi-finals of the European Championship.

He is not the favourite because United have already spoken to him.

Go Ahead Eagles and Utrecht were managed by the Dutch man.

The lower quality of the Dutch league has helped Ten Hag, who has better figures than most of his rivals for the United job this season.

The team is scoring 2.69 goals and giving up 0.48 per game, more than any other team.

Carteret says that he has a number of exceptional ratings and metrics - strategic intelligence, shot conversion of his teams, prevention of shot conversion by opposing teams, shot creation, and conversion of possession into successful match outcomes.

Why don't Manchester United just buy him? There are yellow flags. He manages in the Eredivisie and has a relatively average tactical command which suggests he is not as good as transforming in-match positions into a better outcome.

He has a relatively low attacking coefficients, suggesting a more reserved style of play.

Mauricio Pochettino (PSG)

Mauricio Pochettino
Mauricio Pochettino will hope he keeps his PSG job until he can secure a first ever league title

Predicted finish is third.

Spurs lost toLiverpool in the final of the FA Cup, but the team was developed into regulars in the European competition.

He has only won one French Cup at Paris St-Germain so far, but they are likely to win the title soon.

His job in Paris is uncertain because of their last-16 exit in the European competition.

Carteret says he has excellent overall strategic intelligence and tactical command.

He achieved more successful outcomes from home matches. He has a very high attacking coefficients, which United supporters may appreciate, and he achieved a very good level of success from the attacking style of play.

His team has more passes per sequence and moves per game than any other team.

Julen Lopetegui (Sevilla)

Julen Lopetegui
Julen Lopetegui has rebuilt his reputation at Sevilla after his 2018 double sacking

Predicted finish is fifth.

Sevilla is second in La Liga behind Real Madrid, thanks to the work of Spanish coach Julen Lopetegui.

He was fired by Spain on the eve of the World Cup after it was revealed that he had agreed to take the Real job.

Sevilla have had more possession in the league this season than any of the other teams. Their goals per game are lower than anyone else in this article.

Passing moves

Brendan Rodgers (Leicester)

Brendan Rodgers
Brendan Rodgers is the only manager on this list whose team averages less than 50% possession in the league this season

Predicted finish is fifth.

Rodgers has done a good job atLeicester, leading them to the first FA Cup triumph in their history last season.

During his time as Celtic boss, he won all seven of the available domestic trophies and then left forLeicester, where he helped them win a third consecutive treble.

Rodgers was named LMA manager of the year for his work withLiverpool.

He has the worst goals conceded per league game of the managers on this list. That is still better than Solskjaer.

Luis Enrique (Spain)

Luis Enrique
Enrique's Barcelona scored 116 La Liga goals in his last season in club management (3.05 a game)

Predicted finish is fifth.

Three highly successful seasons as Barcelona manager was enjoyed by Spaniard Enrique, 51. He led them to the domestic double in his second season.

He stepped down after a third season in which his side picked up 90 points and a remarkable 116 league goals, but finished second to Real Madrid in the league.

Spain lost on penalties to Italy in the Euro 2020 semi-finals after being in charge of them since July of last year. It is believed that he would not leave the Spain job before the World Cup.

He has all the hallmarks of being an exceptional manager for Manchester United, but he is compromised by not having managed a club team in the last two years.

He would probably be top of our list, but with a strong contingency based on a series of interviews with Enrique to understand the risks associated with a limited amount of recent club management data.

High turnovers in league

Ralf Rangnick (Man Utd)

Ralf Rangnick
United are scoring and conceding fewer goals under Rangnick than Solskjaer

Predicted finish is fifth.

German Rangnick took over as interim United boss in November and will become a consultant in the summer.

He hasn't ruled out staying on as manager, but recent form makes that unlikely.

His only major trophy in a managerial career that lasted over 700 games was the German Cup in 2011.

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