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Experts and Western intelligence agencies continue to sketch out possible scenarios for the conflict as the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its sixth week. It is possible that the Russian military backs off its initial war aim of regime change in Kyiv and control over the country's future when a ceasefire is reached. The solution may not be that simple. The International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has a senior fellow named Emily Harding.

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Experts and Western intelligence agencies continue to sketch out possible scenarios for the conflict as the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its sixth week.

It is possible that a ceasefire could emerge and the Russian military would back off its initial war aim of regime change in Kyiv and control over the country's future. The solution may not be that simple.

Russia could use its military might to advance into Ukraine, particularly in the east, where it now appears to be focused. The sheer size of Putin's army sets up the possibility of the Kremlin occupying swaths of Ukrainian territory and facing a long and bloody insurgence.

Insurgency is different from regular warfare in that it is usually troops that are not in a military structure, according to Emily Harding, the deputy director and senior fellow of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

If Russian soldiers occupy a large number of Ukrainian territories in the coming months or years, an insurgence is most likely to happen. Putin may not have enough forces to fully establish control if the Ukrainian population continues to support militias and harass Russian troops.

Two tanks loaded with soldiers drive along a road. A Ukrainian flag is displayed on the first tank.
Ukrainian soldiers ride tanks through the town of Trostsyanets, east of Kyiv, on Monday. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

There is a numbers game to be played, and that would be a critical moment in the conflict. The Russians don't have enough soldiers to hold much territory in Ukraine.

In order to be successful, the militias need both financial and military assistance from both the local population and foreign governments. In fact, that is critical to the success of most insurges.

A soldier stands on a destroyed vehicle.
A Ukrainian soldier stands on a destroyed Russian vehicle in Kharkiv. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

Russia's large military has failed to conquer significant Ukrainian territory since launching the invasion last month. Russian troops have been repelled by the largest cities in the country.

The Russians had trouble moving as quickly as the Ukrainians. We joked that we should have been studying eastern Ukrainian mud when we were studying the Russian cyber capabilities.

The war is not over.

She said that people underestimate the extent to which the Russian government is willing to throw people at the problem. I think people are assuming too much that there is a big win in the near term.

A soldier walks through a destroyed village.
A Ukrainian soldier in the village of Malaya Rohan, in the Kharkiv region, which was recently liberated from Russian forces. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

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How are Ukrainian forces taking out so many Russian tanks? Use this graphic to learn about some of the weapons systems the U.S. is sending to the Ukrainian army.

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