Biden’s trip to Europe: A triumph, a walk back, and no clearer end game

Biden and his allies have limited leverage because of the international pressure and vise-like economic sanctions placed on Putin's country. During his four days in Europe, the president stressed his refusal to risk a confrontation with Russia that would lead to World War III, and then delivered the most aggressive and defiant speech by an American president about Russia since Ronald Reagan's speech at the height of the Cold War.

"Don't even think about moving on one single inch of NATO territory," said Biden, standing in front of a castle in Warsaw.

Biden deviated off script to finish his speech with a sudden and dramatic increase in rhetoric.

Biden said that Putin cannot remain in power.

The seeming embrace of regime change stunned seasoned foreign policy observers, even though the president had called the Russian leader a butcher and a war criminal. The White House quickly said that Biden was not making a new American policy after weeks of avoiding such a declaration.

The nine little words upended the trip and threatened to undermine the careful balance Biden had tried to strike of condemning Putin without provoking him. Officials fear that if the United States tried to depose Putin, he would expand the conflict or use his power to preserve his power.

Dimitry Peskov told reporters that it was not for Biden to decide. Russians choose the president of Russia.

The war seemed poised to enter a new phrase as it began its second month, one in which an ending appeared increasingly difficult to imagine.

The military would focus on the liberation of the southeastern region that is home to a Kremlin-backed insurgency, a top Russian commander said on Friday.

That assertion was nonsense. Russian forces tried to seize Kyiv within the first hours of the war, but were stopped by a combination of their own tactical mistakes, equipment failures and surprisingly bold resistance by the Ukrainian military. A war that many in the Kremlin thought could be over in a few days had turned into a nightmare.

The idea that the Kremlin was narrowing its war aim was met with skepticism by Biden officials who suggested it could be a distraction while Russia continued its assault elsewhere. Some military analysts believe that Putin may soon pull out some ground forces, avoiding taking more casualties that could hurt him politically at home, and instead settle in to conduct a long-range bombing campaign to shatter Ukrainian cities.

Russian missiles fell on the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, far from the center of the conflict, and just 45 miles from Poland, where Biden spent Saturday. A senior White House official likened it to a warning shot.

Biden would be in a bind if Moscow's stated new plan became reality. It would be a humiliation for the Kremlin to accept only the territory of the rebels in the east of the country. The West wouldn't recognize that as a legitimate resolution to the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear that he will not give up any territory in a negotiated end to the war.

As the crisis in Ukraine drags on, Biden has to weigh domestic political considerations. Since the conflict began, his poll numbers have not improved. He has been praised back home for his handling of the crisis.

The US will accept more than 100,000 Ukrainian refugees as the humanitarian crisis grows, Biden said on the first leg of his trip. He put a face on the pledge by visiting a camp of exiles. He smiled at the little girl. The president paid a visit to thank the American troops and ate pizza with them.

More than $2 billion in military and security aid has been secured by him. Along with the rest of the West, he has unleashed a number of sanctions that left Russia's economy in tatters and warned Moscow of the consequences that could be incurred. The effort to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy was seen as having little impact on the crisis.

The war posed an unexpected test on one of the central premises of Biden's presidencies, that the globe's democracies had to prove they could not just effectively govern but also serve as a bulwark to rising autocracies. Even as many European capitals wonder if Biden's foreign policy is just an aberration before Trump or someone like him regains power, he has helped allies who have been rattled by four tumultuous years of Donald Trump.

Air Force One lifted off from Warsaw on Saturday evening and the war seemed to be going on. The air raid sirens went off again.