The experts expect the crash to occur as predicted, but are still waiting for visual verification.

The article was originally published at The Conversation.

On March 4, a lonely, spent rocket booster slammed into the surface of the moon at nearly 6,000 mph. NASA will move into position to get an up- close view of the smoldering crater once the dust has settled.

As a planetary scientist who studies the moon, I view the impact as an exciting opportunity. Over the last 4 billion years, the Moon has been a constant witness to the solar system's history. Scientists rarely get a glimpse of the projectiles that form the craters. Scientists can only learn so much from studying a crater if they know what happened.

The rocket impact will provide an experiment that could reveal a lot about how the planets are hit. A deeper understanding of impact physics will help researchers understand the barren landscape of the moon and the effects impacts have on Earth and other planets.

The moon crashes the most.

When a rocket crashes on the moon

There is a debate over the identity of the tumbling object currently on a collision course with the Moon. Astronomers know that the object is an upper stage booster. It is roughly 40 feet (12 meters) long and weighs over 10,000 pounds. Both parties have denied ownership of the rocket, but evidence suggests that it was launched in 2015.

The rocket is expected to crash into the large Hertzsprung crater – seen in the center of this photo – just out of view of Earth on the far side of the Moon.

The rocket crashed into the large Hertzsprung crater – seen in the center of this photo – just out of view of Earth on the far side of the moon. (Image credit: NASA/Lunar and Planetary Institute via WikimediaCommons)

The rocket was expected to crash into a barren plain just over the horizon on the far side of the moon.

A shock wave would travel up the length of the projectile at several miles per second after the rocket touched the lunar surface. The back end of the rocket hull will be destroyed in a matter of seconds.

A twin shock wave will travel downward into the top layer of the moon. A white-hot flash would be visible from space if there was a craft in the area at the time. A cloud of rock and metal will form from the impact point as dust and sand-sized particles are thrown skyward. The ejected material will rain down on the surface around the crater. There will be nothing left of the rocket.

If you're a fan of space, you might have experienced a similar experiment by NASA in 2009. The LCROSS mission was a smashing success, and I was a part of it. Scientists were able to find signs of water ice liberated from the Moon's surface by studying the composition of the dust plume lofted into the sunlight. This piece of evidence supports the idea that comets have been delivering water and organic compounds to the moon for billions of years.

My colleagues and I have been trying to determine the depth of the buried ice-rich layer for a decade because the crater is permanently obscured by shadows.

The impact crater will not be visible from Earth, so scientists will rely on photos from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

The impact crater will not be visible from Earth, so scientists will rely on photos from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. (Image credit: NASA via WikimediaCommons)

Observing with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

planetary scientists will be able to observe a very similar crater in the light of day because of the accidental experiment of the March 4 crash. For the first time, it will be possible to see the LCROSS crater in full detail.

The impact on the far side of the moon was out of view for Earth-based telescopes. After the impact, NASA's lunar rosier was expected to get a glimpse of the crater as it takes it above the impact zone. The camera on the lunar orbiter will take photos of the impact site with a resolution of about 1 meter per pixel. Other space agencies may also train their cameras on the crater.

The shape of the crater and ejected dust and rocks will show how the rocket was oriented at the time of impact. A more circular feature will be produced by a vertical orientation. The crater could be anywhere from 30 to 100 feet (10 to 30 meters) in diameter and up to 10 feet (2 to 3 meters) deep.

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Valuable information will be generated from the amount of heat generated. If observations can be made quickly enough, there is a chance that the lunar orbiter will be able to detect glowing-hot material inside the crater. The total amount of heat from the impact could be calculated using this. High-resolution images could be used to estimate the amount of melted material in the crater and debris field if the orbiter can get a view fast enough.

Scientists will look for any other subtle changes to the surface by comparing before and after images. For hundreds of times the radius of the crater, some of these effects can be extended.

Why this is important

Impacts and crater formation are a pervasive phenomenon in the solar system. Most airless w orlds have a loose, granular top layer. Despite how common it is, the overall physics of this process are poorly understood.

The data from the LCROSS experiment could be used to produce better impact simulations. Knowledge of lunar surface properties, especially the quantity and depth of buried ice, is in high demand.

This rare impact event will provide new insights that may prove critical to the success of future missions to the Moon and beyond.

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