Sea levels are rising. From 2006 to 2015, the rate at which they are rising has more than doubled, from 0.06 inch to 0.14 inch.
NOAA predicts that sea levels will likely rise by at least 1 foot (0.3 m) above the levels seen in 2000 by the start of the next century, while the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that they will rise by 16 to 25 inches (40 and 63 centimeters) by 2100.
Should sea levels rise to this extent, it could wreak havoc around the globe. As many as 250 million people, spanning all continents, could be "directly affected" by 2100, according to a 2019 study in the journal Nature Communications.
Will any of these countries, cities or states disappear in our lifetime, and what can we do to prevent disaster?
Whether cities or countries disappear depends on whether we as humans are doing something to counteract the threat.
Sea levels will change with climate change.
The countries with the lowest elevation are first.
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, the flattest country on Earth is the archipelago of 1,200 small coral islands called the Maldives, which has an average elevation of just 3 feet. According to the UCS, if sea level rise is less than 1.5 feet, it will lose around 75% of its land area by the year 2200.
Kiribati has an extremely low average elevation of around 6 feet above sea level. If sea levels rise by 3 feet, this small island in the heart of the Pacific could lose two-thirds of its land.
Nearly everyone who lives on a Pacific island is likely to be affected by rising sea levels. According to the Science and Development Network, 3 million Pacific islanders live within 10 km of the coast and may need to relocate by the end of the century.
Sea level rise has already led to the disappearance of at least five "vegetated reef islands" that were previously part of the Solomon Islands, with "a further six islands experiencing severe shoreline recession," according to a 2016 study in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
These Pacific islands, though very much in jeopardy, tend to have relatively small populations. So what larger nations might be hit hardest?
China has 43 million people in precarious coastal locations, which could be affected by sea level change. The European Union-funded Life Adaptate project says that Bangladesh and India will be at risk from rising sea levels.
It seems unlikely that any country will disappear completely by the end of the century, even if it were to experience the consequences of rising sea levels firsthand.
Many major cities are at very serious risk of being swamped by the sea. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is one of the most obvious examples of rising sea levels causing real-world difficulties.
Jakarta, home to around 10 million people, has been dubbed the "fastest-sinking city in the world" due to excessive drainage.
This is a recipe for disaster with rising sea levels. According to the World Economic Forum, a lot of Jakarta could be underwater by the year 2050. Nusantara, a city on the east coast of Borneo, will be the new capital of Indonesia because Jakarta is so bad.
Jakarta is not the only city with an uncertain future. According to the World Economic Forum, by the year 2200, Dhaka, Bangladesh (population 22.4 million); Lagos, Nigeria (population 15.3 million); and Bangkok, Thailand (population 9 million) could all be submerged.
The United States is likely to be impacted by rising sea levels. Many U.S. cities could face serious issues by the year 2050, with vast swathes of land potentially rendered unlivable.
In many locations along the U.S. coastline, high-tide flooding is 300% to more than 900% more frequent than it was 50 years ago, which suggests that sea levels are a valid cause for concern.
Climate Central research shows that New York City is at risk. New York will be home to nearly half a million people by the year 2050, according to the report. At least 43 people in the city died as a result of the superstorm, around a quarter of a million vehicles were destroyed, and there was at least $32 billion worth of damage and loss. Andrew Cuomo said that at the time.
Florida seems certain to be the state that is hit hardest by flooding. According to Climate Central, 36 of the 50 U.S. cities that are most vulnerable to coastal flooding are in Florida.
What can be done? Can these cities and countries be saved?
Countries that invest in infrastructure, such as the Netherlands, may be able to avoid some effects of flooding. But some investments, such as those being proposed in Florida, cannot be applied everywhere. For example, the restoration of mangroves, as suggested by The Nature Conservancy, and the expansion of coral reefs, are viable only in certain climatic regions. Moreover, such measures are expensive.
Officials in Miami-Dade County, Florida, recently announced a mitigation strategy that will involve "elevating homes and roads," as well as creating open space that will allow flooding to take place without damaging infrastructure, according to The New York Times.
However, these plans have not been greeted with universal praise. Some experts, such as Rob Moore, a senior policy analyst with the Natural Resources Defense Council, told the New York Times that he's "not sure if it's really owning up to the problems that are in Miami's future," while others have implied that the proposals have "downplayed the magnitude of the threat."
In Florida, there have been discussions about whether it is economically viable, or worthwhile, attempting to protect all infrastructure, with suggestions that it could be better to accept defeat in some regions, according to an article published by Yale Climate Connections.
While countries such as the United States may be able to invest in coastal protection projects — and have the ability to learn via trial and error — most developing nations don't have the same luxury. When compared to countries like the Netherlands and United States in terms of having the financial clout to implement such projects, "Bangladesh is not in such a fortunate position," Masselink said.
So, a key factor in determining whether a city or country will disappear is not necessarily the rate of sea level rise, but more the capacity of a city or country to address the problem and develop long-term defenses.
Masselink said that a low-lying, unstable and poor country will not be able to keep the sea from bay.
What will our planet look like in 100 years?
This is difficult to predict, as in addition to the uncertain rate of sea level rise, which depends strongly on our greenhouse gas emissions, the main factor is how nations and society intend to mitigate against rising sea level.
It was originally published on Live Science.
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