An Omicron subvariant, known as BA.2, is expected to become dominant in the U.S. in the coming weeks. Lucy McBride is a medical contributor for Yahoo News. Is BA.2 going to surge in America like it is in Europe? There are some clues that it might not be, and the coming days could provide more reason for cautious optimism. The BA.2 subvariant of Omicron, which is at least 30% more transmissible than its sister lineage, has sent COVID-19 case counts soaring again at the very moment when most Western European countries seemed to be putting their massive. Over the last three and a half weeks, cases have more than tripled in the U.K. The European Union has seen a 70% increase in new daily cases since the beginning of March. U.K. hospitalizations have been on the rise. For Americans, the fear is that we're next in line to be affected by the BA.2 and that it will do to us what it is doing to our European counterparts. A big U.S. BA.2 surge isn't inevitable. There are three signs of hope. In New York, the subvariant appears to be one month behind the U.K. in terms of prevalence, and ahead of the rest of the States. The recent U.K. turn around followed a clear pattern. The country's dominant strain was called BA.2 around Feb. 20. The British government lifted its last COVID restrictions at the same time. The daily U.K. case counts bottomed out one week later. They have increased more than 200% since then. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the New York region is the first in the US where the subvariant hit the 50% mark. If the U.S. were to follow in the U.K.'s footsteps, cases would start to take off in New York around March 27 when BA.2 clears 60% or so. That could still happen. There is at least one major difference between New York and the U.K. When BA.2 became dominant in Britain, there was still a lot of virus circulating, with almost a quarter of tests coming back positive. After an additional month of declining infections, the positivity rate in New York is just 1.9%. In the U.K., it was more common than it is in New York. It's harder to spread when there's less of it around. The New York case counts might reflect this. The cases there have started to rise, but they are still rising slowly, at a rate of just 17% over the last week. Over the last week, they have risen 4% in New York City. The U.K. had cases rise at a rate of 67% per week as soon as BA.2 took over. We will see what happens next. The New York region is not the only place where BA.2 is dominant. Tracking viral RNA levels in local sewage is a faster way to find new variations than using a test. They are not seeing big case growth there. This information might seem to clash with recent headlines and social media posts about a huge increase in sewage levels at dozens of sampling sites nationwide. The CDC's new National Wastewater Surveillance System compiles the latest levels from 700 sites in three-quarters of the states, but only reports the percentage by which those levels have changed. The experts at the Pandemic Prevention Institute pointed out that it was possible to have a 1000% increase in risk. A big change can still be small. It's important to see a trend rather than a single data point, because it's hard without a longer sampling period. A more revealing measure would be to compare case numbers to sewage levels over time in a place where BA.2 is dominant. The chart shows a bunch of lines that pancaked in March. If BA.2 is going to cause a surge, it will take its time. According to the CDC, Johnson took a closer look at the sewersheds in Missouri where the wastewater concentrations have increased 1,000% or more. Some of these might be the beginning of trends, but it is hard to say without more data points. The CDC dashboard is designed to be very sensitive to recent spikes, so it is important to compare the number of sites with increases to the number of sites with decreases. Over the past two weeks, Johnson found that the increases and decreases were probably noise. The numbers went down slightly. Nathan Grubaugh of the Yale School of Public Health calculated that the subvariant is doubling every 8.6 days in Southern Connecticut, where local experts now estimate that BA.2 accounts for more than 80% of new cases. The BA.2 case will be more of abump than a wave according to the current trends. Europe is suffering another real wave while the U.S. is experiencing a mere bump. Shifting behavior probably has a lot to do with it. It is possible that this month is the full reopening of Europe after a longer period of more serious social distance. It's even easier for the fastest variant to find anyone who didn't have Omicron. Mobility data shows that Brits are moving around more as cases rise. The U.S. is not the same. While a few liberal states and cities only recently lifted their mask mandates, a lot of the country returned to normal. Changing behavior in the U.S. isn't really changing all that much, for a simple reason. Maybe some older and more cautious Americans are starting to encounter wider circles, which will affect the U.S. curve in the coming weeks. America has been letting the virus rip so far. Which version of the virus has we been letting rip? The strain that caused America's enormous winter wave was actually a more aggressive version of Omicron, which was the strain that initially hit Europe. The majority of the United States has been BA. 1.1, which is a fraction of the BA.1 family that appears to be more transmissible than the original. That could explain why it hasn't been taken over quickly here. 45% of Americans were affected by the variant of Omicron that was worse over the winter. It may be helping the U.S. by maximizing the amount of population-wide protection against reinfection with BA.2 and preventing BA.2 from kicking into exponential growth mode. Warming weather could help with transmission. Hanage said that there will be abump and it will be bigger in some places. I don't think it's going to be as dramatic as Europe, because the recent Pandemic history has been quite different. The U.S. should not let down its guard. Americans are more vulnerable to hospitalization and death if BA.2 takes off in the States. Almost all of the US population has received two shots. The U.S. is ranked 65th and 70th on these metrics. The U.S. has a booster rate of just 65% for seniors. In the U.K. and many European countries, that number is more than that. Seniors are less protected against Omicron hospitalization and death if they don't have a booster. Millions of U.S. seniors are unvaccinated. There are 7 million Americans who are immunocompromised, and no children under 5 have been vaccinations. America's last modest safety measures, including indoor mask requirements in public places and schools, have just been lifted. Experts say now is the time to prepare for the worst, even as they hope for the best. Studies show that people who choose to wear high-quality masks are less likely to have a heart attack. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress have refused to give that funding. A senior administration official told reporters last week that there were looming shortfalls in the ability to manufacture and widely distribute tests. We need this funding immediately. It wouldn't be unprecedented if the U.S. dodges the BA.2 bullet. The U.K. was ravaged by the Alpha variant of the virus last winter, prompting fears of a spring surge in the United States. The proportion of U.S. Alpha cases kept going up, but the total number of COVID cases kept going down. Michigan was the only state where Alpha caught fire. The rest of the country was spared. The experts warn that if Omicron and BA.2 come after, new versions of the virus are likely to emerge. "You use the quiet periods to do the hard work, because you know that it's not easy," said Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the New York Times. The Omicron BA.2 subvariant on the rise was seen in L.A. County earlier this month. The tech-laden index is in correction territory, down 12% from its high. From their highs, Cloudflare and Mercadolibre have fallen by 50% and 40%, respectively. Both Cloudflare and Mercadolibre have carved out a strong competitive position in the fast growing markets they compete in. Binge 1883 is an exclusive story on Paramount+. You can try it for free. A small volcano in a scenic lake near the Philippine capital blew a white cloud of steam and ash 1.5 kilometers into the sky on Saturday, prompting authorities to raise the alert level and evacuate hundreds of residents from high-risk villages. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said that Magma came into contact with water in the main crater of Taal volcano, setting off a steam-driven blast that was followed by smaller emissions and volcanic earthquakes. The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen halted missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia for three days in a peace initiative it said could be a lasting commitment. The group also announced a three-day suspension of ground offensive operations in Yemen, including in the gas-production region of Marib, according to a speech broadcast on television. A new book by New York Times reporters examines tensions between President Joe Biden and Vice President Biden. 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2. Wastewater
3. BA.1.1
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How are vaccination rates affecting the latest COVID surge? Check out this explainer from Yahoo Immersive to find out.
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