Associated PressAssociated Press
FILE - Firefighters from the Marins-Pompiers of Marseille extract samples of sewage water at a retirement home in Marseille, southern France, Thursday Jan. 14, 2021, to trace concentrations of COVID-19 and the highly contagious variant that has been discovered in Britain. As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)
Emily Lu, a student in the environment science graduate program at Ohio State, tries to extract ribonucleic acid (RNA) from wastewater samples to test for fragments of the coronavirus, March 23, 2022 at a school lab in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Patrick Orsagos)
FILE - A second grade student is give a at-home COVID-19 test at H.W. Harkness Elementary School in Sacramento, Calif., Friday, Feb. 11, 2022. The Sacramento City Unified School District began distributing the tests to elementary and middle school students, and families are to submit the results before returning to class. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
Graduate program students Emma Lancaster, right, Emily Lu, center, and Fan He, left, work to extract remnants of COVID-19 in wastewater samples, March 23, 2022 at a school lab at the Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Patrick Orsagos)
FILE - Firefighters from the Marins-Pompiers of Marseille extract samples of sewage water at a retirement home in Marseille, southern France, Thursday Jan. 14, 2021, to trace concentrations of COVID-19 and the highly contagious variant that has been discovered in Britain. As coronavirus infections rise in some parts of the world, experts are watching for a potential new COVID-19 surge in the U.S. — and wondering how long it will take to detect. (AP Photo/Daniel Cole)

Experts are watching for a potential new surge of coronaviruses in the U.S. and wondering how long it will take to detect them.

Some recent developments don't bode well, despite disease monitoring improvements over the last two years.

The government relies on gold-standard tests for case counts as more people take rapid COVID-19 tests at home.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will soon use fewer labs.

Health officials are more focused on hospital admissions, which rise only after a surge has arrived.

The data needed to understand coming surge can't yet be counted on because of the patchwork nature of the wastewater program.

White House officials say the government is running out of money for vaccines, treatments and testing.

We are not in a great situation, according to a Brown University researcher.

The availability of vaccines and treatments puts the nation in a better place than when the Pandemic began, and that monitoring has come a long way.

Scientists this week promoted a program that tests international travelers at four U.S. airports. The variant of coronaviruses found in the sample was seven days earlier than any other reported detection in the U.S.

Cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S. have been falling for weeks.

Video: Moderna says its COVID shots work for kids under 6

Captions will look like this

The vaccine works in babies, toddlers and preschoolers. Moderna said it would ask regulators in the US and Europe to allow two small-dose shots for children under the age of 6. (March 23)

It is different elsewhere. The World Health Organization reported this week that the number of new coronaviruses cases increased two weeks in a row, most likely due to the fact that COVID-19 prevention measures have been halted in many countries.

Some public health experts don't know what that means for the U.S.

More than one-third of all US cases are accounted for by BA.2 and more than half are in the Northeast. There have been small increases in overall case rates in New York and New England.

Some of the northern U.S. states have higher rates of BA.2 than others.

The national case data on BA.2 needs to be as much real-time data as possible, according to Dr. James Musser, an infectious disease specialist at Houston Methodist.

Here is what COVID-19 trackers are looking at and what scientists are worried about.

The results of the test.

The test results have always been flawed, but they are at the core of understanding coronaviruses spread.

Initially, only sick people were tested, meaning case counts missed people who had no symptoms.

When the omicron wave hit last year, demand for home test kits exploded. Many people who take home tests do not report their results. Health agencies don't try to gather them.

Mara Aspinall is the managing director of an Arizona-based consulting company. In the first two months of the year, about 8 million to 9 million rapid home tests were being done on an average day.

The case numbers are not as indicative of reality as they used to be.

Hunting for pests.

In early 2021, the U.S. was behind other countries in using genetic tests.

A year ago, the agency signed deals with 10 large labs. The program will be reduced to three labs over the next two months.

During the omicron wave in December and January, when more people were getting tested, the weekly volume of sequence performed through the contracts was much higher. CDC officials say the contracts allow the volume to increase to more than 20,000 if necessary, although by late spring it will be down to 10,000.

The agency says that it does not expect the change to affect its ability to find new variant.

Experts expressed concern.

The director of pathogen genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard said that it was quite a substantial reduction in our baseline surveillance and intelligence system.

SeWage surveillance.

A monitoring system is looking for signs of coronaviruses in sewage.

Researchers have linked wastewater samples to the number of positive COVID-19 tests a week later, suggesting that health officials could get an early glimpse at infection trends.

Some health departments use sewage to look for things. The first case of the omicron variant was reported in the U.S. about 10 days before New York City detected the signals.

The system does not cover the entire country. It doesn't distinguish who is infectious.

It is an important and promising strategy. The health officer for Seattle/King County, Washington said that the ultimate value is probably yet to be understood.

There is hospital data.

A new set of measures was outlined by the CDC last month in order to decide whether to lift mask-wearing rules.

Hospital admissions are a lagging indicator because a week or more can pass between infections and hospitalization. A number of researchers think the change is appropriate. Hospital data is more reliable than case counts according to them.

The lag is not as long as one might think. Many people wait to be tested. The results aren't always immediate when they finally do.

Spencer Fox, a University of Texas data scientist who is part of a group that uses hospital and cellphone data to forecast COVID-19 for Austin, said hospital admissions were the better signal for a surge than test results.

There are concerns about the future of hospital data.

A group of former CDC directors recently wrote that if the federal government lifts its public health emergency declaration, officials will no longer be able to force hospitals to report COVID-19 data. They urged Congress to pass a law that will provide enduring authorities so that we won't be blind to health threats.

There is a

AP reporters Lauran Neergaard in Washington and Laura Ungar in Louisville contributed.

There is a

The Howard Hughes Medical Institute supports the Associated Press Health and Science Department. The AP does not accept responsibility for the content.

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