Italy lost to North Macedonia in the qualification semifinals. (1:35)
The old joke about buses is that you wait hours for one, and then two come along at the same time. Except in reverse. Italy missed out on the World Cup for the first time in 60 years after Thursday's loss to North Macedonia.
Italy was stunned by North Macedonia.
The side that won the European Championships just eight months ago, the one that had lost one of its previous 39 games, should go out to North Macedonia. In Europe, 13 countries get to qualify.
You have a certain margin for error if you are not particularly lucky. You pay the price when you screw up.
Italy would have won their group with 22 points and would have been watching the playoffs on TV if they had not missed penalties against Switzerland and Bulgaria. You are not reading this column right now because of the three wins that turned into draws.
They were able to control their own destiny against North Macedonia. They took a ton of shots and had a lot of possession, but failed to put it in the net before the opposition scored.
That is football.
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The appeal of this game is that goals are rare, the outcome often hinges on moments that have outsized importance. It means that North Macedonia can travel away to the European champion without arguably their best player and still win with a game plan consisting of defensive and attacking football. The drama is what we crave.
What does it mean for Italian football? It's a repeat of the World Cup debacle against Sweden. Euro 2020 will only partially mitigate embarrassment and pain. It is similar to eating ice cream when you have stones. It tastes good, but it hurts down there.
This is what it doesn't mean. The knee-jerk reaction of the media and the commentariat is that Roberto Mancini should lose his job. This is not a situation where people can point to obvious mistakes: players not called up who should have been there, replacements that backfired, and formations that didn't work.
It doesn't mean that Italy is heading in the wrong direction because of this result. These things are not dependent on a missed penalty. You look at the health of the national development system on football and the players it produces.
The former has changed for the better. Italy is no longer sitting back, absorbing pressure and nicking goals at the other end. Only a few successful teams play that way at club or international level and not only has Mancini changed that mentality, but it has trickled down to the younger coaches in Serie A and B.
There are two points to be made about the producing players benchmark. You call it a lagging indicator. The effects of changes will not be felt for another five to 10 years. After Italy's first round exit from the World Cup in 2014, a lot of changes were made. Some are starting to bear fruit in the form of promising youngsters, some may do so down the line, and some may never work out. You are always looking into the past when judging a current generation and how they came through.
There is a degree of randomness when it comes to talent.
The fans of North Macedonia celebrated wildly in the capital of Skopje after they knocked out Italy.
Some of Italy's greatest-ever strikers and guys who spent most of their time on the field were included in the squad that won the World Cup in 2006. Ciro Immobile, Lorenzo Insigne, Domenico Berardi, and Joao Pedro were all options for the game against North Macedonia. It should have been more than enough to win on Thursday, but it wasn't. It's important for a team that demands the ball and takes tons of shots to have the odd star in there. You have to accept the fact that talents that were born are not made.
The truth may be simpler and more boring. Italy deserved to win Euro 2020 because they played some of the best football in Europe without having some of the best players. They are not a worse team than Switzerland and North Macedonia, but because of their individual mistakes, they still deserve to go out.
Either way, the correct direction of travel is by Mancini. Between their last World Cup game and their next one, at least 12 years will pass. They can come back stronger if they stick with this plan.
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