As Russia's invasion of Ukraine drags on for a fourth week, it is becoming clear to both Moscow and Kyiv that the conflict will not be easy to win.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is widely believed to have started his invasion of Ukraine expecting a quick victory, having miscalculated and underestimated the resistance Ukrainian forces and thousands of volunteer civilian fighters would mount to fight for their homeland.
Russian forces have only captured one city, Kherson, while a much-feared assault on the capital Kyiv has yet to begin.
The Russian invasion has wreaked havoc on parts of the country and cities that are vital for the wellbeing of the country, like Mariupol, a key port city for the country which exports grain and steel.
With Russia making little headway in its overall invasion and Ukraine battling to concede as little territory and vital infrastructure as possible, the conflict quickly risks becoming a war of attrition.
The war in Ukraine is heading towards a stalemate phase during which both sides have limited ability to conduct offensive operations while the devastation and human suffering continues.
Tursa said that Moscow is resorting to more brutal tactics in order to break the public's faith in the military.
Russian forces appear to be targeting food storage facilities and large shopping centers, such as the shopping mall destroyed in Kyiv on Monday, shown in the image below. The Kremlin denied that it targets civilians.
An aerial view of the completely destroyed shopping mall after a Russian shelling in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 21, 2022.Tursa warned that the Russian army could resort to greater destruction to keep the campaign alive, testing the resolve of the Ukrainians and the West, which has pledged to continue supplying arms to Ukraine but has refused to intervene.
CNBC has not been able to independently verify the Defense Ministry's claims.
On March 2, Russia reported that 498 of its armed forces had been killed in the fighting, but it has not provided an official update since.
The pro-Kremlin Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda reported Monday that 9,861 Russian soldiers had died since the beginning of the war, but it has since deleted the article after claiming it was hacked.
If the Ukrainian figures are correct, the number of Russian soldiers that have died is around the same number that died in Russia's ill-fated invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
War of Attrition: “The sustained process of wearing down an opponent so as to force their physical collapse through continuous losses in personnel, equipment and supplies or [wearing] them down to such an extent that their will to fight collapses.”The International Encyclopedia of the First World War
Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, said in a note Monday that Putin isn't currently ordering a mass deployment of equipment and personnel to the frontline.
The Russians are taking heavy losses from the fighting, which is more than the combined losses of the U.S. and Iraq. The Ukrainians have become more emboldened by Russian difficulties in the field and the international support for their country, which is why capturing Kyiv isn't a realistic option for the Russian military at the moment.
The best-case scenario for Russia would be for Putin to withdraw most of his troops and for Russia to lose its energy superpower status and its smartest citizens to other countries.
President Joe Biden said on Monday that Putin could use chemical weapons in the conflict in order to gain an upper hand.
Russia said it does not target civilians and is not preparing to use chemical weapons. Russia's Ministry of Defense directed CNBC to a statement from more than two weeks ago which said in part that Russian forces use high-precision weapons.
There is overwhelming photographic and video evidence that shows that Russia is hitting civilian targets with unguided weapons. There has been more death and destruction this week with attacks on Mariupol continuing and thousands of Ukrainians trapped there.
The besieged city is surrounded by Russian forces and water, electricity, food and medicine supplies have been running low for days, prompting questions over how long Ukrainian forces can hold the city, a key strategic goal for Russia. The city is an important export hub for Ukraine.
The director of the German Marshall Fund's Warsaw office told CNBC that it was an attrition conflict.
The stalemate in which Ukrainians keep dying is why the Western support is still necessary. The use of chemical weapons would be a terrible escalation, because Putin is not winning and he is cornered.
He said the main goal was to make sure that the war doesn't get out of hand and that Russia pulls out of Ukraine so that a political settlement can be reached between the two countries.
The resistance to Russia by the people of Ukraine has been praised by the world for its bravery and has attracted admiration for the targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and residential buildings.
Over 3.5 million people have left Ukraine, and hundreds of people have died.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has appealed to leaders around the world, and particularly those in Europe and the U.S., to supply more arms to his country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy receives standing ovations before he addresses the German Bundestag via live video from Kyiv on March 17, 2022.Zelenskyy told the Italian Parliament that his country was on the verge of death in the war. Zelenskyy has been upbeat about the chances of defeating Russia in daily updates for the public and addresses to foreign leaders, saying the country will fight to the very end.
Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to NATO, told CNBC that he is optimistic that Russia will be the first to fall in the war because of the logistical challenges it faces as it drags on.
The way it ends is the Russians exhaust themselves.
I don't think Russia will be able to sustain the invasion once they are unable, asUkrainians are feeling very confident and their demand is that the Russians leave their country. I think it continues for a while, and then I think it ends up favoring a Russian withdrawal.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
