There are two realities to big experiences in our lives. What really happened is what there is. There is a narrative that we tell ourselves and each other. The narrative is the most important according to psychologists. We can make sense of events by creating coherent stories. The narrative is what determines what we do next.
Two years after the World Health Organization used the word "pandemic" in its own story about the deadly new virus, narratives have changed around the big questions. How bad is it? What should we do about it? When will it end? Some of the stories we embraced have been correct, but others have sown division and caused needless deaths. The stories aren't finished and neither is the Pandemic.
If we are lucky, Covid's transition to a present but manageable disease is what we need to understand and reconcile. What has happened since 2020? How does it affect us now?
Even if we fight Covid into normality, scientists agree there will be another pandemic, and more likely sooner than later
The first narrative we got wrong was that infectious disease is only a problem for poor countries. horror stories began to emerge from Italian hospitals as the virus raced across Asia. It was too late in some places.
Most people were on board once we agreed a response was needed.
Many remember that initial consensus was not as strong as it was. The US was divided along party 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 888-739-5110 Three in 10 Americans said the epidemic was over before the Delta variant hit.
In England, the anti-establishment narrative was shared with the US Republicans. The strongest factor associated with higher Covid deaths and lower vaccination rates in British voting districts after October 2020 may have been due to this group rushing to abandon protections.
The libertarian preference for individual responsibility and the belief that we could either save lives or the economy were both narratives that the government seemed to follow. The plan was to not actively contain the virus, as the WHO insisted, but to let it spread until everyone was immune. When epidemiologists explained how many deaths it would involve, that changed.
Asian countries that locked down early and hard had fewer deaths and were better off. The individual responsibility narrative persisted in England. The repeated decisions by Downing Street to lift restrictions too soon or reimpose them too slowly was described by Jeremy Farrar.
The narratives and their effects are still with us. Even though cases of the even more contagious BA.2 version of Omicron were already climbing, they clearly informed England of their plan for dropping masks, closings, testing, and even viral surveillance from April.
The impact of Covid has been blunted by vaccines and drugs. infectious disease is always collective, whether or not leaders like it. The forebears of Omicron broke through our immunity. Many people whose age or medical condition makes them more likely to die if that happens, or who have suppressed immunity, cannot take personal responsibility for avoiding Co.
Even people who accepted Covid was serious and needed a collective response assumed the narrative would end with Covid going away. The scientists initially hoped that the virus would die out like its cousin, sars, in 2003 because they wanted it to evolve too slowly to evade our immunity.
No luck. We don't want the disruption and anxiety to stop, but we won't achieve that with policies that pretend the epidemic is over when it isn't.
Covid has shown that a widely held narrative that diseases always evolve to be milder is not true. It looks like it will keep going. Vaccines don't stop people from catching and spreading it.
Many people remain unvaccinated. Some people believe that the narrative of distrust of science or government means they refuse. Rich countries insist on another narrative, that if we don't get our vaccines, the virus will come back to us and we won't be able to protect ourselves. There are many animal species that can host Covid.
One day, we will not need to disrupt our lives to live with it. Some disruptions will become normal, such as more working from home. We hope that better vaccines, drugs and treatments for long Covid will make the disease less likely to kill or damage those with access to them. As children, Covid may cause lasting immunity and become a common cold. Although we will not be there by April, living with Covid is how this comes out.
The end of the story is only in this chapter. Even if Covid is normal, scientists agree there will be another outbreak. We need to learn to spot and contain worrying outbreaks to stop that.
We must see through the misleading story that portrays the outbreak as a sudden and unexpected battle between microbe and hero scientists for the cure. It's more likely germs will jump from animals to us in the first place because of the long history of deforestation, wildlife trade and risky farming. These are causes that could be addressed for a fraction of the cost.
Our story of Covid being locked down until scientists found the vaccine strengthens the outbreak narrative. Governments may think they can react after the next strike. We were incredibly lucky that we found safe, effective vaccines faster than expected, and that the disease wasn't too deadly. You were more likely to die from sars once you got it.
We need a multinational effort to watch for new infections. The WHO says we need to spend a lot of money.
Will we? It depends on the narrative. Is Covid over? No. Will there be another outbreak? Yes. Can we stop it? Maybe. It depends on the stories we tell ourselves.
The author of Stopping the Next Pandemic: How Covid-19 Can Help us Save Humanity is a science journalist.
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