Global energy markets have been shocked by the war in Ukraine. There is a shortage of food on the planet.
A large portion of the world's wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world'sfertilizer is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food prices are going up. wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley prices have increased by 33 percent and some fertilizers prices have increased by 40 percent.
Major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies were compounded by the upheaval.
An increase in world hunger is being warned of by economists, aid organizations and government officials.
The consequences of a major war in the modern era are being laid bare. Food, oil, gas, and even metals like aluminum, nickel, and palladium are all rising fast, and experts expect worse as the effects cascade.
The World Food Program feeds 125 million people a day.
Critical planting and harvesting seasons are missed by Ukrainian farms. European plants are cutting production because of high energy prices. Farmers from Brazil to Texas are cutting back on the amount of urea they use.
The result will be higher grocery bills around the world. The largest increase in 40 years was seen in February, when US grocery prices were up 8.6 percent. The war is expected to further inflate those prices.
The latest surge in prices could push some people over the edge. After remaining mostly flat for five years, hunger went up by 18 percent during the Pandemic. The war could cause an additional 7.6 million to 13.1 million people to go hungry, according to the United Nations.
The World Food Program's costs have already increased by $71 million a month, enough to cut daily ration for 3.8 million people.
The world's view of the war may be affected by rising prices and hunger. Is it possible that they will fuel anger at Russia and call for intervention? Is it possible that frustration would be targeted at the Western sanctions?
Some places may not be able to find enough food due to higher prices.
Most of the wheat imported from Russia and Ukraine was used by the five countries. Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh and Iran have obtained more than 60 percent of their wheat from the two warring countries.
China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of wheat, is expected to buy much more than usual this year, so all of them will be bidding on an even smaller supply. On March 5, China revealed that severe flooding last year had delayed the planting of a third of the country's wheat crop.
China's agriculture minister said that this year's seedling situation was the worst in history.
In poor African and Arab countries, rising food prices have long been a catalyst for social and political upheavals, and many subsidize bread in efforts to avoid such problems. Their economies and budgets are already strained by the Pandemic and high energy costs and are now at risk of collapsing under the cost of food, economists said.
Tunisia struggled to pay for food imports before the war and now is trying to prevent an economic collapse. Protests have already started in Morocco due to inflation, as well as renewed unrest in Sudan.
A lot of people think that this will mean bagels will become more expensive. "That's absolutely true, but that's not what this is about." said Ben Isaacson, a long time agriculture analyst with Scotia. The Middle East and North Africa have experienced repeated uprisings.
Yemen, Syria, South Sudan and Ethiopia are all facing severe hunger emergencies that experts fear could quickly get worse.
More than half of the population of Afghanistan do not have enough to eat and aid workers warn that the humanitarian crisis has been worsened by the war in Ukraine.
The director of Bashir Navid Complex said that prices were going up. He was in Russia for five days and couldn't find cooking oil. He will sell 15-liter cartons for $35 at the Afghan market. He sold them for $23 before the war.
The United States believes it has only imposed sanctions on Russia and its banks.
Russia and Ukraine are the worst countries to be in conflict with. Over the past five years, they have together accounted for 30 percent of the world's wheat, 17 percent of corn, 32 percent of barley, and 75 percent of sunflower seed oil exports.
There are signs of a stalemate. With Russia's advance on Ukraine's major cities stalling and satellite imagery showing soldiers digging into defensive positions around Kyiv, a consensus is emerging in the West that the war has reached a bloody stalemate.
A base is hit. More than 40 marines were killed in a missile attack on barracks in the southern city of Mykolaiv. It would be one of the single deadliest attacks on Ukrainian forces since the start of the war, and the death toll could be much higher.
Chernobyl workers are happy. 64 workers at the nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine were able to be redeployed after more than three weeks without being able to leave. Russian forces took control of the plant a day after staff were trapped.
Russia has been unable to export food because of sanctions. Ukraine has been cut off from the outside. The Black Sea has been blocked by Russia for exports.
The next harvest in Ukraine is becoming more worrisome. On March 11, the agriculture minister begged allies for 1,900 rail cars of fuel, saying that the country's farms had run out after supplies were diverted to the military. Ukrainian farmers would not be able to plant or harvest without that fuel.
There are other obstacles. Up to 30 percent of Ukrainian farmland could become a war zone according to the United Nations. More and more Ukrainians are leaving the country to join the front lines.
Russian and Ukrainian wheat is hard to replace. According to the United Nations, inventories are tight in the US and Canada, while Argentina is limiting exports and Australia is at full shipping capacity. The price of wheat is up 69 percent over the past year. Corn prices are up 36 percent in Russia and Ukraine.
The war could cause a shortage ofFertilizer in the future.
A Texas farmer said that he stopped applying urea to the fields that nourish his cows because of the high prices. He is worried that he will have to reduce the amount offertilizer in his next corn crop.
About 15 percent of the world supply is supplied by Russia. Just as farmers around the world prepared for planting, Russia told its fertilizer producers to stop exporting. Sanctions made such transactions difficult.
Russia's closest ally, Belarus, a leading producer of potash-basedfertilizer, has been hit by the sanctions. Even before the war in Ukraine began, the export offertilizer from Belarus was stopped because of sanctions over the seizure of an expatriate dissident.
Europe's fertilizer producers said earlier this month that they were slowing or stopping production because of soaring energy prices. Natural gas is used to make many fertilizers.
Over the past year, the world's major fertilizers have more than doubled or tripled in price.
Brazil, the world's largest producer of soybeans, buys most of its potash from Russia and Belarus. It has three months left on its inventories. Members of the national soybean farmers association have been told to use less fertilization this season. Brazil's soybean crop is likely to be even smaller because of the severe weather.
Antonio Galvan, the soybean association's president, criticized international sanctions, saying they were preventing fertilizers from getting to producing countries.
China uses a lot of the crop to feed livestock. Smaller cows, pigs and chickens, as well as higher prices for meat, could be caused by fewer, more expensive soybeans.
Jon Bakehouse, a corn and soybean farmer in Hastings, Iowa, said he was worried about a looming shortage of urea and pre-paid for it late last year. He has less than a month to apply his fertilizer to his corn crop because it hasn't arrived. He said his yields would be halved without it.
When they show the cars jumping in slow motion, the passengers are up in the air. It feels like we are suspended in the air, waiting for the car to land. Who knows if it will be a nice, gentle landing or if it will be a nosedive into the ditch.
The reporting was done by Andr, Spigariol, Najim, and Safiullah Padshah.
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