Global carbon emissions from deforestation reveal surprisingly stable carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans

A new time series has been created for global carbon emissions. The missing link in the improved understanding of the global carbon cycle is the series, which implies that the natural capture of CO 2 by the land and oceans is more efficient than previously thought.

The study shows that carbon emissions from deforestation were lower than had been thought. By combining the time series with other data, the scientists show that the CO 2 taken by nature is not influenced by climate change as much as was thought in the past. The new study was conducted by scientists from Deltares, VU University Amsterdam, Woodwell Climate Research Center, Columbia University, and Wageningen University and Research and was published in the scientific journal Nature.

Time series reconstruction.

The scientists used records of visibility data to estimate the carbon emissions in South America and Indonesia. If there are large numbers of forest fires, visibility declines due to levels of smoke and these visibility data are a measure of the number of forest fires linked to deforestation in these areas.

Records of visibility at airports go back much further than satellite data. We were able to establish a new time series of carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fires by linking them to satellite data for more recent periods.

Visibility data is recorded by weather observers along with more conventional observations such as temperature and precipitation. Robert Field of Columbia University, who was involved with the study, said that they were able to use them as a proxy for fire.

The carbon cycle is stable.

Since the 1970s, we have known that half of our carbon emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels. The other half are absorbed by land. Research has been done to see if the ratio changes in the long term because of climate change. Climate change could be accelerated because more CO 2 is left in the atmosphere. Evidence for this was provided by previous studies, but they also stated that it was difficult to draw firm conclusions because of inconsistent data series.

The new time series shows that emissions from deforestation were lower from the 1960s to the 1980s. The scientists think that a lot of the emissions stayed in the atmosphere. Over the entire sixty-year time series, this results in a negative trend, a sign that nature has kept pace with the growth of emissions from fossil fuels and may even have become more efficient over time.

Dave van Wees, the lead author and VU climate researcher, said that the negative trend is now robust but the cause remains uncertain. There is more research that needs to be done to figure out the roles and trends of individual mechanisms.

There are implications.

It is difficult for the time being to draw firm conclusions from this paper about future climate change according to a professor at the VU University of Amsterdam specializing in the global carbon cycle who set up the study. We can't say that we have more time to achieve the targets. New insights relating to the period of the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s are the reason for the good news. It might be that the improvement in efficiency has stopped over the last few decades.

According to Jan Verbesselt, associate professor in remote sensing at Wageningen University and Research who was involved with the time series analysis of this study, follow-up research focuses on early warning signals and the resilience of the tropical forests for the current more

More information: Margreet J. E. van Marle et al, New land-use-change emissions indicate a declining CO2 airborne fraction, Nature (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-04376-4 Journal information: Nature Citation: Global carbon emissions from deforestation reveal surprisingly stable carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans (2022, March 17) retrieved 18 March 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-03-global-carbon-emissions-deforestation-reveal.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.