Drought in U.S. Is Expected to Persist, and Spread, Through the Spring

More than half of the continental United States is likely to be in some form of dry weather through at least June, straining water supplies and increasing the risk of wildfires, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The largest part of the continental United States is experiencing a dry spell, which is the largest part since the beginning of the year, according to the spring outlook issued by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. The agency expects these conditions to get worse and spread in the coming months because of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.

After a winter in which some Western states had seen improvement, that is a turn back in the wrong direction. Some states in the Southern Plains are in worse shape than others.

Jon Gottschalck, the operational branch chief at the Climate Prediction Center, said during a call with reporters on Thursday that there are a few patches of the Southwest and the Southern Plains that are not currently experiencing a dry spell.

Lake Powell, one of the Colorado River's two huge reservoirs, fell this week to its lowest level since it was created more than 50 years ago. It is close to a threshold that would cause the dam to be shut down.

A majority of the state of California is expected to return to severe or extreme drought.

The Climate Prediction Center's Brad Pugh said that there was little time left to make up any precipitation deficits. He said that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures would be a good thing, but that it would be a bad thing for the Northern and Central California area.

The three-year precipitation total in the Central Valley is likely to be the lowest since 1922, according to a hydrologist at the California Nevada River Forecast Center.

The risk of wildfires has become larger and more frequent in recent years. In the United States, a study published this week by researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder found that fires occurred twice as often in Western states and four times as often in Great Plains states compared with the previous two decades. According to a recent United Nations report, the most devastating fires will occur more and more as climate change gets worse.

An underlying factor in the conditions that the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration expects is La Ni F1;a, a climate pattern that developed in 2021 for the second year in a row and is expected to remain in place through the spring. The phenomenon involves changes in sea surface temperatures and air pressure in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can affect weather patterns around the world and has contributed to California's dry spell.

Climate change may increase the frequencies and intensity of La Ni and El Ni.

The highest risk for flooding in the Red River area is identified by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday. Any area can experience sudden flooding from a severe storm if the soil is saturated from sustained heavy precipitation.