NATO's not ready for World War III

The Week

Vladimir Putin. Illustrated | Getty Images, iStock

The war is moving closer to the borders of NATO. Russian rockets hit a Ukrainian base in Poland on Sunday. It looks like a warning. NATO and the United States could be on the verge of war if one of those missiles had traveled farther west.

cooler heads would prevail in case of such an accident, but that is not guaranteed. Could NATO launch a full-scale war against Russia right now?

The short answer is no, and it is time for both armchair military strategists and lawmakers to realize it.

We are in a reassurance posture. David Shlapak of the Rand Corporation told The Week in a recent interview that they are showing they are in the game and their commitment is still strong. We are not in a credible warfighting posture.

There are many people in the foreign policy establishment and Congress who want to give a no-fly zone to the Ukrainian President. NATO is not ready to do that.

The United States would have to move hundreds of planes from bases around the world to set up a no-fly zone. It would take weeks to set up and couldn't be done in the dark. If you knew NATO was coming, wouldn't you retaliate? Wouldn't you see a war on the horizon?

NATO would have to shoot down Russian planes even if they got around Russia's plans. According to experts who spoke with The Week, taking out Russian anti-aircraft defenses would mean NATO warplanes could fly safely. Many of them are inside the borders of Russia and Belarus. Taking them out would involve NATO in a ground war, and the West is not ready for that.

There are 74,000 U.S. military personnel in Europe, including the United Kingdom, Italy, France, and Spain. Some people are not front-line fighters. Logistical, maintenance, and other tasks are done by many. Thousands of NATO troops are in the front-line Baltic nations of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Less than 100,000 NATO forces in Europe are ready to fight.

The Russian force brought together for the invasion of Ukraine is double that of the total Russian force.

Is NATO capable of bringing a larger force to bear? You bet. It would take a long time, according to Shlapak.

Mark Cancian, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The Week that 100,000 more troops would have to be shipped to Europe from the United States in order for NATO to be ready to face down Russia. Weapons, equipment, and logistics have to be scaled up.

Once prepared on the US side of the Atlantic, ships would have to make a 3,000-mile trip to bases in Europe such as Germany, where they would have to be deployed most of the time.

Cancian and Shlapak agreed that it would take between two and three months. All of it would be visible by satellite. Getting ready for war is loud.

In 2003 it took months to build up forces on Iraq's borders. Everyone knew the war was coming, but the foe was so bad they had no choice but to dig in and hope the U.S. lost interest in fighting.

That isn't the case with Russia. As NATO planes approach Ukrainian borders with hostile intent, what are the chances that Russia won't strike first? Would you wait for warplanes to attack you before attacking them?

All parties have spent 80 years since World War II improving their technique, and ships crossing the Atlantic have been sunk before. NATO and Russia patrol each other's shores ready for war. Hundreds of ships steaming toward Europe for a fight might be considered a provocation.

It is possible that NATO and the West are justified in declaring war on a friendly nation. The delivery of missiles to the mujahideen fighting Russia in Afghanistan in the 1980s is one example of a precedent.

The West sent anti-tank weapons into Ukraine by the hundreds. NATO is supplying weapons to kill your children and if the Russian military isn't living up to tactical and strategic expectations, it will be seen as a betrayal.

Nobody knows where the world ends. There is a chance that we are on the verge of a true world war because of the brutality of Russian forces against civilians in Ukraine and the fact that the fighting is very close to NATO.

It looks like NATO is not prepared to fight it.