The United States specializes in denialism. China's first cases of the virus were reported in late 2019. The virus is not airborne. Don't have boosters for all adult age groups. There are many more examples, but one stands out.
Is it concerning that Covid infections are increasing in the UK?
The Lombardy region of Italy was the scene of a major outbreak in early 2020 that Americans were confident wouldn't happen here. It couldn't happen here. And then it did.
The United Kingdom and Europe have warned America of a new surge in the number of cases of the H1N1 flu. Each time, the United States experienced a new wave that was not as severe as the Alpha variant. What happens in the UK and Europe doesn't stay in the UK and Europe.
Several countries in Europe, including Germany, France and Switzerland, are experiencing a new wave. Austria exceeded its peak during the Pandemic season, and the country has seen an 85% increase from the previous week. Many of these countries are seeing a rise in hospital admissions.
The UK and Europe have warned about the United States before.
There are indications within the United States that a new wave is getting started. The United States has a relatively small number of wastewater sites where it is conducted, but 15% of them showed a greater than 1000% increase compared with the previous 15-day period. In the United States, the BA.2 variant is accounting for more than 30% of new cases.
It is difficult to pin down the root cause of the new wave. The Omicron BA.1 variant has increased transmission at least 30% more than the BA.2 variant. The transmission advantage will increase as a result of the reduction of restrictions. The factors are interdependent and it is hard to separate them. The imperative is to drive some preventive action rather than focusing on what is driving the new wave.
The United States did not heed the warnings from the UK and Europe. It just reacted to the surge when it happened, instead of preparing with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Only 64% of the population has had two shots, and only 29% have three shots. The United States is ranked 65th and 70th in the world.
The people who need protection the most are the 65-plus group. The US has a booster rate of 65% in this age group, whereas the UK and many European and Asian countries have a booster rate of at least 90%.
This is a critical issue, because there is a substantial drop in protection, from 90-95% with a third shot to 75-80% without a booster, versus Omicron hospitalization and death. There is no plan for a fourth dose in the United States. The Israeli study of over 1 million people age 60 and over showed a 4.3 fold enhanced protection against severe illness from Omicron compared with those getting three shots.
The budget of the American Pandemic Prepared Plan (AP3), which was advanced by the White House to address the deficiencies, was gutted by the Senate and reduced to just $2 billion. The order of more than 9.2m Paxlovid pills, the Test-to Treat program, better data, and efforts to develop a pan-coronaviruses vaccine are all under threat.
We haven't seen a new major variant yet, but there are a lot of reasons to believe that will happen in the months ahead, due to the large number of people who have been exposed to the virus. Preparedness is required for that. We have a mindset that the epidemic is over, which is not true, as I wrote about in the epidemic of Covid.
In China, a zero- Covid policy has resulted in very little natural immunity and vaccines that have weak efficacy against Omicron. The whole country will be affected by the outbreak in Shenzhen and Shanghai, two of the country's most populous cities. What happens in China doesn't stay in China.
The time for American Covid denialism is over.
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