Russia's economy is in a bad shape, the military is struggling in its attempt to take down Ukraine, and there is a lack of faith in the government.
According to an expert on authoritarian regimes, all of the grievances that usually lead to a coup against a dictator are in place.
The likelihood of Putin being overthrown is a lot higher than it was a month ago, according to a University of Michigan researcher.
Nobody should be waiting for Putin's government to be overthrown because he has spent two decades scheming ways to protect himself.
According to online searches, interest in the possibility of a coup against Putin is at an all-time high.
The week of February 27 to March 4 was when the search term "Putin coup" peaked in popularity, representing 100 on the graph.
The data shows that people are still searching for the term.
The only way this ends is for someone in Russia to take this guy out, according to Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Graham was criticized by fellow legislators of both parties for his recklessness.
The Russian military is not performing in the way that most people expected, and it is doing poorly overall.
The Guardian reported on Friday that the US intelligence agencies say up to 6,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine. According to Forbes, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims that it has killed 12,000 Russian soldiers and destroyed over 2,000 Russian vehicles.
John Kirby told reporters on Monday that Russian soldiers are having a hard time in the face of Ukrainian resistance. Insider reported that firsthand accounts suggest that many people were misled about the purpose of the war.
Middle-class Russians are really feeling the crunch because of the economic catastrophe caused by sweeping international sanctions. The country's elite are struggling, too, and are being targeted by the sanctions.
There are things that have motivated coups in other places.
Putin has spent two decades making his regime coup-proof.
Putin could be overthrown through a military coup, but he had taken measures to make Russia less viable.
Counterintelligence, internal and border security, and surveillance are some of the things the Federal Security Service of Russia focuses on. It plays an important role in monitoring the political reliability of military officials.
Putin was an intelligence officer in the KGB before he became the head of the FSB. Putin took control of the spy agency after he was elected president.
Alexander Litvinenko, who died after being poisoned, accused the agency of running a hit squad that was targeting political enemies. Human-rights groups say that the FSB uses its powers to intimidate and stifle dissent.
The form of coup prevention that is most effective is the FSB because military officials are less likely to coordinate an overthrow of the government if they fear being killed off.
The Federal Protective Service, or FSO, would protect Putin if a coup attempt were to take place.
The FSO is a government agency that protects Putin and other high-ranking state officials. ThePraetorian Guard was a military unit that served as the bodyguards and intelligence agents for the emperors of Ancient Rome.
Estimates suggest that close to 20,000 uniformed FSO members are working to protect Putin.
The members of the special unit within the FSO are Putin's bodyguards.
The New York Post reported that members of this unit carry Russian-made pistols. They formed security rings around Putin in the public and searched for potential threats.
There is a chance of people from the FSO turning on Putin, but the Russian leader has created a culture of mutual distrust to prevent successful coordination against him.
The intelligence agencies spy on each other as they also perform their other intelligence functions.
Putin has created structures to prevent conspiracy against him. Measures have been introduced to keep the military on-side and to discourage rebellion.
The National Guard is an internal security service charged with quelling protests in the country. In order to keep the Russian army happy, Putin created the Rosgvardia.
Arms are generally oriented to fighting external enemies of the state, and they don't like being used for crowd control.
The Russian army will not be asked to fire on protesters in Russia. This will reduce grievances that could lead to a coup.
Imagine if Putin asked one of his internal security guys to launch a crack down on the protesters. I would rather resign and then quit.
If enough people resign, that could be a possible end point for Putin.
A coup is more likely when officials plan a peaceful overthrow of a regime.
Protests in Russia are unlikely to lead to a revolution, but may indicate to elites that a successful coup could lead to them gaining power and influence under a new regime.
The unpopular order to crack down on mass protests could lead to a flurry of high-profile resignations and, in turn, Putin being pushed out.
If you mobilize against Putin and you fail, you could end up in jail, exile, or death.
During a Russian Security Council meeting in February, Putin publicly reprimanded Sergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia's foreign intelligence agency, for his subordination in his inner circle.
—max seddon (@maxseddon) February 21, 2022
He said that he made it clear that he alone was the top of the system and that they serve at his discretion.
While a country in crisis is more likely to experience a coup, it is not easy to topple the leader of an authoritarian regime.
He said that Putin has been preparing for this eventuality for 22 years.
All Rights Reserved © 2024
