The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was formed in 1988 to advance knowledge of the impact of climate change on the natural environment. They have issued reports on the political, economic, and natural impacts of Climate Change since 1990. The second part of the sixth assessment report was released on February 27th.
Three different reports were conducted by three different Working Groups of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The assessment of the scientific basis of climate change is done by the WGI, whereas the assessment of the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems is done by the WG II. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere are some of the methods being assessed.
The Full Report and several summary documents allow for quicker and easier access to all the information provided. The Summary for Policymakers, Fact Sheets, Technical Summary, Global to Regional Atlas, and access to individual Chapters are included.
The Physical Science Basis was published in August of 2021. The third will likely be released in April, while the final Synthesis Report will follow later in the year. The key findings presented in the report were again reached by the IPCC.
Since the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report was published in 2014, a wider range of impacts has taken place that are attributable to climate change. New knowledge shows how certain ecological impacts are caused by the forces of nature. Extreme weather and increases in temperature are having effects.
The impacts of Climate Change will be felt in different parts of the world, with special attention given to the different geographical areas of the planet. The authors looked at how different areas will be impacted and how these will be felt disproportionately based on income, development, locality, quality of life and health outcomes, local infrastructure, and the availability of government and emergency services.
The report emphasizes that solutions for adapting to Climate Change need to meet a certain societal threshold. The principle of climate justice is spelled out in the Summary for Policymakers document. As it states.
“The term climate justice… generally includes three principles: distributive justice which refers to the allocation of burdens and benefits among individuals, nations, and generations; procedural justice which refers to who decides and participates in decision-making; and recognition which entails basic respect and robust engagement with and fair consideration of diverse cultures and perspectives.”
Climate Change will have a particular impact on Indigenous peoples worldwide according to one of the key findings in the WGII Report. This includes the aboriginal peoples of Australia, the Indigenous peoples of Australia, the Innu of the Arctic Circle, and the Native inhabitants of Siberia.
Local changes in the environment and global changes in weather patterns, climate cycles, and average temperature will disrupt the tradition of hunting, fishing, and farming within these communities and geographic localities. The Full Report indicates that.
“Indigenous perspectives of well-being embrace physical, social, emotional and cultural domains, collectiveness and reciprocity, and more fundamentally connections between all elements across the past, present, and future generations. Changing climate conditions are expected to exacerbate many of the social, economic, and health inequalities.”
The Report acknowledges that vulnerability to the effects of Climate Change is part of ongoing efforts for social justice. Poverty, inequality, and underdevelopment are the direct results of colonialism and imperialism, with many of its enduring practices to this day. This is also true for Indigenous peoples in North, Central, and South America.
There is a central role for Indigenous Peoples in climate change decision making that helps address the enduring legacy of colonization through building opportunities based on Indigenous governance regimes, cultural practices to care for land and water, and intergenerational perspectives, according to the authors. The commitment of Indigenous Peoples to the well-being of the community and sustainable living is emphasized in the Full Report.
The Full Report acknowledges Indigenous Peoples as partners in climate justice by recognizing their commitment to the land, continuous habitation, and land rights.
“Actions and solutions that safeguard nature are relatively inexpensive in many parts of the world because they do not rely on complex machinery or on the development of extensive infrastructure. However, to realize potential benefits and avoid harm, it is essential that these solutions are deployed in the right places and with the right approaches for that area, guided by local and indigenous knowledge, scientific understanding and practical expertise. Knowledge is the key.”
The question of where these impacts are felt by human beings is of particular interest. The impacts of Climate Change are being felt in urban environments where most human beings live today. According to the UN, urban populations began to exceed rural populations by 2007. Urban populations make up 55.3% of the global population of 7.6 billion.
According to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the global population is projected to reach over 9 billion by the year 2050. The global urban population will increase by 2.5 billion. The Report emphasizes how increases in average global temperatures will fall especially hard on these centers.
The stress on the surrounding countryside extends far beyond the city limits, as urban communities are concentrated in relatively small geographic areas. Many of the associated impacts are felt more severely in urban areas, where populations are highly concentrated and dependent on services and resources that come from around the world and the supply chains, transport networks, and other infrastructure critical to supporting them.
The risks of heat stress, reduced air quality, lack of water, and health impacts caused by urban air pollution are included. Major cities worldwide are already feeling the effects of record highs in the summer and heat domes. Extreme weather events in the winter include hurricanes, flooding, and rising sea levels.
Between 14 and 27% of the Earth's population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every five years, according to the report. The number of people treated for heat-stroke, illness, injuries, and even death increases as temperatures increase. It is taking an economic toll as people are forced to spend more time indoors because working outdoors can be hazardous to health.
The potential impacts of Climate Change are addressed by different Global Warming Levels or Pathways, which will have different impacts if we don't reduce carbon emissions. The pathway is based on a reduction of 45% by the year 2030.
If this is done, the average temperature increase will be limited to a GWL of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, whereas other pathways will result in an increase of 2 C. The risks are projected for the near-term, mid-term, and long-term for pathways that exceed an average increase in global warming.
They note that keeping greenhouse gas emissions below the targeted threshold would still result in significant impacts.
“[S]ome 8% of today’s farmland is projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. Under the same conditions, fisher people in Africa’s tropical regions are projected to lose between 3 to 41% of their fisheries’ yield by the end of the century due to local extinctions of marine fish. Fisheries provide the main source of protein for about one-third of people living in Africa. It supports the livelihoods of 12.3 million people. Declining fish harvests could leave millions of people vulnerable to malnutrition.”
Extreme weather events such as heavy rains and extreme flooding have increased in severity. Local mass die-offs and local extinctions are being triggered as species are pushed far beyond the temperature limits they can tolerate. Reef-building warm-water corals that are declining everywhere are examples.
Of course, the authors also note that these risk increase steeply with rises in global temperature. If average temperatures increases reach a level of 2 °C by 2100, up to 18% of all species on land will be at high risk of going extinct. According to the Report, reaching a GWL of 4 °C (7.2 °F) (the highest emission pathway) will result in far more severe impacts:
“If the world warms up to 4 °C, every second plant or animal species that we know of will be threatened. The extinction risk is especially high for cold-loving species living in the high mountains or in polar regions, where climate change impacts are unfolding at global maximum speed and extent.
“[M]ass mortalities and extinctions are expected that will irreversibly alter globally important areas, including those that host exceptionally rich biodiversity such as tropical coral reefs and cold-water kelp forests and the world’s rainforests. Even at lower levels of warming of 2°C or less, polar fauna (including fish, penguins, seals, and polar bears), tropical coral reefs and mangroves will be under serious threat.”
Preparing for all possible outcomes is what the calls for adaptation and mitigation are all about. The unmitigated assertion that things will get worse before they get better is a feature of the IPCC Reports.
The concept of climate resilience is one that comes down to two sets of actions. A wide range of actions that drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a similarly wide range of actions that transform the way we live our lives are included. The authors state that we can't just curb emissions. We need to make long-term changes that will allow us to live with nature.
“That is the reason why sustainable development in a climate context includes for example clean energy generation, circular economies, healthy diets from sustainable farming, appropriate urban planning and transport, universal health coverage and social protection, training and education as well as water and energy access for everyone to help to reduce poverty.”
Emissions reductions and carbon removal can both reduce the greenhouse gas forcing.
The outlook and practices of the IPCC mean that they perceive CDR and removal strategies differently than climate restoration advocates. The Foundation for Climate Restoration is a global non-profit committed to education, outreach, and partnerships between the public and private sectors. They are partners with the UN's Envoy on Youth and participate in international events like the World Economic Forum and the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties.
Rick Wayman, CEO of F4CR, said that the IPCC is committed to examining all peer-reviewed science on Climate Change and presenting consistent solutions. CDR is limited by the lack of peer-reviewed studies as far as it is concerned. The concept of CDR is acknowledged by the reports as a necessary strategy, but they treat it differently than climate restoration advocates.
“They don’t talk about removing greenhouse gases in terms of climate restoration. They don’t use that language. They basically use it to say that carbon dioxide removal is going to play some role in pretty much any scenario you look at to keep us at 1.5 degrees of warmth.
“They also go into a lot of ‘what about scenario b, where we overshoot to 2.2 degrees and have to accelreate our carbon dioxide removal to get back down to 1.5. But they are looking at Gigaton-scale CDR. We are as well, we’re just looking at it on a faster timescale and a greater quantity.”
Natural removal mechanisms, such as removal by plant species, sequestering in the Earth's oceans, etc., are mentioned in the Report. With the release of the report, the role of carbon dioxide removal techniques is likely to become clearer.
Methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere are included in the focus of the third edition.
The scale and scope of actions to reduce climate risks have increased since the previous Report. Climate change adaptation efforts are mounted by individuals, households, communities, businesses, religious groups, and social movements worldwide. The current levels of global warming are identified in the report as large gaps in the ongoing efforts.
The report shows that the effectiveness of available adaptation options decreases with each increment of warming. It is necessary that urgent, more ambitious, and accelerated actions be taken. They emphasize the need for rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Nature and human beings will have to adapt to the fall in emissions.
To conserve, restore, and safeguard nature to meet the Paris Agreement and the sustainable Development Goals, fundamental changes need to be made in society. To show how these changes can be made in ways that are economically beneficial, populations worldwide need to be shown how.
Special attention is given to inclusive, equitable solutions and ensure that no one is left behind. Wayman said that the report seeks to debunk the notion that it is either the planet or the economy.
“I think in terms of public opinion, one of the interesting things in this Worlkdin Group II Report is that they’re talking about ‘societal acceptance’ is a big part of any kind of remediation effort that is made. Even if it’s aforestation (creating new forests) in order to absorb some carbon and maybe mitigate some other issues – help us adapt to things that climate change is bringing about – societal acceptance is a really important thing.
“There are different communities and different people that need to be convinced that a) climate change is real, and b) changing their behavior is necessary [and] doesn’t necessarily mean a worse quality of life. But also that whatever solutions you’re talking about are going to benefit the community and be a net positive.”
Wayman says that the authors of the report stress societal acceptance of Climate Change and adaptation/mitigation measures. This is in keeping with the advocacy for adaptation solutions that are effective, feasible, and conform to principles of justice.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has overshadowed the findings of the Report. There are people in the scientific and journalistic community who have noticed how dependence on foreign oil and Climate Change are related and could offer a solution. Wayman explained:
“There’s a lot of talk in the U.S. in particular. We’ve got to get out of Russian gas, we’ve got to stop fuelling the war through the fossil fuel industry of Russia. There are two camps, two proposed solutions to that. One is let’s speed up our transition from sustainable transportation, to renewable energy. The other is the path of least resistance: increase our domestic oil production.
“Both of these ideas share the goal of not funding Russia’s military ventures. But the thinking behind it is very different. In a way, given the situation, this is an opportunity for the United States and many countries around the world to speed up their sustainability pursuits. Because it shows that no only is burning fossil fuel bad for the environment, it can also be used for very negative, unintended consequences – the money that’s behind it.”
The prospect for economic recovery has been seized upon by progressive legislatures and environmentalists. The Biden Administration's bill contained elements similar to the Green New Deal.
After two years of restrictions, masks, and vaccinations, many other countries will be able to rebuild their economies around a more sustainable model. These efforts show how current crises are being interpreted in terms of the greatest threat facing humanity: the impacts Climate Change will have on our environment and the systems we rely on for our livelihood and survival.
The release of the WGIII Report is expected in the next month and will reveal more about the proposed solutions. The message of the AR6 is consistent with previous reports. The situation is going to get worse if we don't act now. The authors summarize.
“The extent and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated in previous assessments. They are causing severe and widespread disruption in nature and in society; reducing our ability to grow nutritious food or provide enough clean drinking water, thus affecting people’s health and well-being and damaging livelihoods. In summary, the impacts of climate change are affecting billions of people in many different ways.”
Further reading is about the IPCC.
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