The war that Vladimir Putin hoped for has not materialized.
Two weeks after Russia ordered an invasion, Ukraine continues to hold its largest cities.
Russian armored vehicles and tanks are being picked off by US-made missiles and Turkish drones, as demoralized Russian troops desert, or pillage supermarkets for food. Russia's until recently vaunted Aerospace Forces is MIA. Ukrainians are defiant.
There are growing signs that the biggest land war in Europe since 1945 is entering a much more deadly phase.
Russian forces appear to be regrouping as they attempt to take over the capitol of the country. The military of Putin is no longer considered to be among the world's most powerful because it lacks the troop strength and combat effectiveness to seize and control one of Europe's largest cities.
Russia's strongman has options: retreat, suffer heavy losses in urban fighting, or resort to total destruction.
Jeffrey Edmonds, an expert on the Russian military with the Arlington, Va.-based research organization, told Insider that he was highly skeptical of them being able to secure Kyiv.
They can level it, which is what they prefer. It remains to be seen if they try to control the city street by street or if they just level it in the hopes that the Ukrainians give up.
The US estimates that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have died so far in the war in Afghanistan.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was caused by the invasion of Afghanistan. Or he could cause mass casualties on the Ukrainians with whom he has pledged his Fraternity, calling them and Russians one people.
Russia's currency is cratering amid a global backlash, as its top officials show few signs of backing off. They insist the invasion of Ukraine on three sides is a special military operation and have banned Russian media from calling it a war. Clouds of chemical weapons or the blast of a tactical nuke are no longer unthinkable in this bind.
Russia's initial offensive was puzzling after its months-long military build-up. The troops moved in small groups, rather than in combat formations, which would have allowed them to seize territory and defend themselves. Russian air support was non-existent. Logistic support was outran by troops. Russia created a miles-long traffic jam by using main roads.
The force seemed to be focused on taking the country's largest cities and killing or capturing Zelenskyy, the elected leader. Zelenskyy has rallied his nation and the world to his cause.
I don't think they can control the entire country, what I think they are trying to do is control certain key objectives like Mariupol. The rest of the resistance should be replaced with a political structure.
A Ukrainian force parried that lightning strike.
The Russian failure is due to the fact that they are attempting to conduct a full-scale invasion without the mil operation that it would require, thinking they can avoid most of the fighting, according to Michael Kofman, a Russian military expert.
He said that it seems they tried to win quickly and cheaply.
—Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) February 28, 2022
The effort, which he called "shambolic", has continued as Russia's superior force tries to encircle the capital.
One video shows a gaggle of Russian tanks on an avenue that gets attacked. Rob Lee, a former Marine and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said that Russian troops displayed "very poor tactics" by inadvertently bunching so many tanks within range of Ukrainian indirect fire.
That's the big challenge for the Russians, coming into the city.Ben Wallace
The battle of Kyiv is likely to reveal the true colors of the Russian military.
Russian soldiers entering the capital will face an entrenched and well armed enemy without the air power they need. The tanks will be crippled. If they want to defeat ambushes, evade snipers and stop petrol bombs from multiple directions in a dense cityscape like Kyiv, they will need to coordinate their movements in a way that has not been done yet in this war.
When asked about Russia's chances, the military expert recalled his days as a US Army tanker at the beginning of the Iraq war.
We hardly used tanks in Iraq. We went into up-armored things after I drove around the city in a Humvee without doors. The idea is to flood the city. There wasn't much of a role for tanks there.
It takes coordination, command and control, and air power, as well as a lot of practice via urban war games, to fight well in a city.
They mostly train to fight NATO. A Western veteran who was closely following the conflict said that even a highly trained force still has the risk of heavy casualties.
Ben Wallace, the UK defense secretary who is a British Army veteran, said in an interview that the biggest challenge for the Russians was coming into the city.
Everyone from civilians throwing Molotov cocktails to soldiers with anti-tank weapons can cause very serious damage to the armed forces.
We always accepted that casualty rates in cities and urban areas were very high.
Which leads us to option B.
A one-word shorthand is used to describe it: Grozny.
Putin was plucked from relative obscurity to lead Russia in 1999. The fighters of Chechnya had fought Russian forces to a standstill a few years before.
Russia mostly chose to fire on the Chechen capital of Grozny rather than face the Chechen defenders. Russia bombarded the city with missiles and bombs. A cruise missile hit a central market and killed 140 people, according to an account by a Globe and Mail correspondent.
Russian forces ended the siege after four months. 25,000 people were killed. The UN said Grozny was the most destroyed city in the world.
He has no sustainable political endgame in the face of what is going to be fierce resistance from UkrainiansWilliam Burns
The world is starting to see elements of what could become total warfare in Ukraine. Russia struck a maternity hospital. The troops attacked apartment buildings and residential areas. A family was killed in a mortar strike.
Evidence is mounting that Russia has moved the weaponry it needs to indiscriminately attack Kyiv, a city of almost three million before it was invaded. They have bombs that are capable of killing civilians. There are thermobaric warheads that are more deadly than conventional explosives and can be used to kill troops in fortified bunkers.
The director of the CIA said that Putin had a plan to seize the city. But his forces were unable to encircle it in two weeks, causing Burns to describe Russia as "largely ineffective" against the Ukrainian defenders.
Burns told the House Select Intelligence Committee that he thinks Putin is angry and frustrated.
The biggest challenge is that he has no sustainable political endgame in the face of what is going to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians.
There are claims that Russia could use chemical weapons to force Ukrainians to give up their weapons. When Insider brought up this possibility, he replied: "Non-zero chance, man."
Putin's attackers are close to a city that is intricately connected to its own culture. Both modern Russian and Ukrainians trace their roots to the thriving civilization of the Kievan Rus. The UNESCO heritage site of the Saint Sophia Cathedral, with its distinctive 13 golden cupolas, has stood for over 1000 years. The area that would become Moscow was still a forest, as the US embassy in Kyiv recently noted in a joke.
Experts and officials worry that Putin has put his chips all-in.
Putin is going to keep throwing things at this in an attempt to get his political objectives.
This thing ends poorly because of that.
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