Surprise! The U.S. Is Still Energy Independent

I wrote about the nuances of U.S. energy independence in December. President Trump made us energy independent, but we lost that independence under President Biden, according to a common belief.

That isn't strictly true, but it requires a bit of understanding about what energy independence is. In Is The U.S. Energy Independent?, I covered these issues.

A correct accounting would add up all of our energy production and subtract our net energy consumption. The U.S. is a net exporter of coal and natural gas, so the balance of the oil and gas industry is very important.

The decline in U.S. net imports can be traced back to the rise in the use of hydraulic fracturing. The U.S. imported 12.5 million barrels per day of oil in that year. By the time President Obama left office, the number had fallen to just over five million BPD. The last full month in office, the number was 4.2 million.

The downward trend continued after President Trump took over. The net import number turned negative under President Trump. We gained energy independence under President Trump. Net exports for the year were 635,000 BPD.

When the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in widespread stay-at- home orders, the U.S. energy demand and energy production plummeted. In the first four months of 2020, net exports averaged one million BPD. We had to start again by May. Three quarters of a million BPD was imported by the U.S. in May and June. Net imports became net exports in the second half of the year. The United States became a net exporter for the first time in modern history in 2020.

Net imports and net exports were both on a month-to-month basis. We lost our energy independence when we were net importers. We were a net exporter in other months.

It wasn't clear if the U.S. would be a net exporter for the entire year. The numbers for December were posted by the EIA, and now we have an answer. The final average for the year was 162,000 BPD as net exports grew each month from September through December. It is still energy independent according to the net export definition.

We lost our energy independence on a monthly basis. The full calendar years of 2020 and 2021 turned out to be net export years. It would take a lot of changes to change the energy independence status of 2021.

I wondered if we had lost our energy independence on a rolling 12-month basis after we gained it. The 12-month average for each month was looked at instead of the calendar years. This shows the evolution of our energy independence and smooths out the month-to-month noise.

We imported a lot of oil in the summer and I thought we lost our net exporter status. I was wrong.

This graphic shows a more nuanced picture of events. It shows that our march toward energy independence slowed down. What happened in those years? Saudi Arabia tried to put the U.S. drillers out of business by flooding the market with oil and collapsing the price.

We resumed our march toward energy independence. That is the first year of Donald Trump's presidency, and it also coincides with Saudi Arabia trying to prop up oil prices. The average price of West Texas Intermediate increased by more than 50% over the course of two years. The price recovery helped increase oil production.

The graph shows that we have never lost energy independence, which happened in April 2020 on a rolling 12-month basis. The downward trend switched directions in June 2021, covering the period of June 2020 through May 2021.

The average never changed back to a net import situation on a rolling 12-month basis. If we were to factor in net exports of coal and natural gas, it's not as bad as it looks. The graph will decline if the trends in the past three months continue. If these trends continue, our level of energy independence will increase again.

It is safe to say that the U.S. is still energy independent.