Less than two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the country's people and armed forces are still fighting back.
Many analysts and strategists believe that it is only a matter of time before the Russian military overwhelms the country.
Many expect a long and drawn-out conflict in Ukraine, with Europe unlikely to return and Russia unlikely to withdraw its troops.
CNBC looked at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them.
The fluid nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow and the West making unpredictable moves.
It is widely expected that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to install a pro-Russian regime in the country.
The base-case scenario for the next three months is for Russia to gain control of eastern Ukraine and the Dnipro River.
The rump Ukrainian state is likely to be led from the western city of Lviv, according to a note by the Chairman of the Eurasia Group.
The analysts predicted that there would be 10 million to 5 million refugees in Western Europe.
Ukrainian soldiers help an elderly woman to cross a destroyed bridge as she evacuates the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 7, 2022.NATO would provide significant military assistance to the western Ukrainian state if it were to intervene in the conflict.
Russia's military strategy has at times been beset with logistical problems, confusing the picture of what Russia's main or immediate goals are.
Only one city has fallen to the Russians since the beginning of the invasion in February, and that is Kherson.
Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get harder as the war progresses, as Russia tries to seize more territory.
The Russians have a lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening, according to Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst. This thing could last a long time.
Some analysts think that Russia could lead to a partition of the country if it were to have patchy control over the country.
Taras Kuzio, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, wrote in an article for the Atlantic Council on Thursday that Moscow has indicated that it is aiming at the complete military conquest of Ukraine followed by a partition and a massive purge of the civilian population.
Putin's apparent goal is to eradicate all vestiges of Ukrainian identity while condemning the country to a grim future as a military dictatorship locked firmly inside a new Russian Empire. He said that this vision was in line with Putin's own stated objectives for the current military campaign along with his long record of public contempt and animosity towards Ukrainian statehood.
There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could be similar to that of Alexander Lukashenko. According to Kuzio, there has been speculation of Moscow trying to install former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the Euromaidan Revolution and fled for Russia.
This would be in keeping with Kremlin propaganda, which has insisted for the past eight years that a Western-backed coup took place.
Ukrainians would continue to fight against any puppet regime, with the conflict descending into an insurgency with those Ukrainians left in the country attempting to topple any such regime by any means available.
Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said that Russia is likely to face a long, drawn-out, pricey and painful occupation of Ukraine.
The trillion dollar question is how Putin will win the peace in Ukraine. Ukrainians have had 30 years of freedom, which they enjoy, and how can Putin return to the days of the Soviet Union without being seen as a pariah? This is not the case where the Soviets did brutalize civilians in the 60s and 70s.
Even if the formal military battles end,Ukrainians will resist. Ash said in an email that the internet and news will expose Putin's brutality for all to see.
Ukrainian soldiers clean their weapons as they prepare to head back to war in Irpin on March 5, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.There's a chance that a Ukrainian fightback doesn't pose a significant challenge to Russian forces that remain in Ukraine.
There is no easy solution for what would likely be a heavily-destroyed Ukraine, or for Russia if an insurgency continued long term.
The strategists at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security noted that Russia's victory in Ukraine would be a Pyrrhic victory.
The strategists noted that a Ukrainian insurgency could cause a significant, sustained human and financial toll on Russia, as it would be forced to devote far more of its resources over a much longer period of time than it had anticipated. NATO countries would likely provide covert but very robust defensive assistance to the Ukrainian resistance.
In this scenario, the conflict depletes Moscow's finances and resolve, ultimately forcing a withdrawal after a lot of violence and death.
Russia would realize it has a quagmire that has trapped many powerful states through history in this scenario.
Russia becoming a pariah state at a global level and withdrawing after a costly invasion would be positive for Ukraine, but it would be devastating, the strategists said.
NATO has repeatedly refused to intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as it would likely bring it into conflict with Moscow and it has warned that any country that intervenes in the conflict will be in trouble.
Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployment strengthened in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for conflict to spill over into their own territories.
Ash warned of a new Iron Curtain descending on Eastern Europe if Russia prevails in Ukraine.
Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group, said in an email that the situation is a problem in Europe. He noted that it's a non-starter for the West to send troops to fight alongside Ukrainians or to establish a no-fly zone over the country.
You can send fighter jets and other advanced weapons systems to the Ukrainians, provide Ukraine with real time intelligence on the disposition of Russian forces, and take economic measures without limitation to destroy the Russian economy, if you're short of that.
Bremmer believes that Putin still believes that the United States and NATO allies have aided and abetted Russia.
Russia may resort to more indirect attacks, including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, as well as the possible sanction of terrorism in and against NATO countries.
It remains highly unlikely that Russia would launch a direct military attack against NATO forces, given that NATO is a tripwire for a broader war. That is another matter. NATO would be unlikely to respond directly with military strikes against a nuclear power; the only way to prepare is greater intelligence efforts to prevent or at least blunt the effectiveness of the efforts.
NATO could get dragged in to the conflict if strategists based in Eastern Europe are to be believed.
The director of the German Marshall Fund's Warsaw office told CNBC that Putin told them what he wanted to do after the invasion of Russia. We need to be more careful about attacks on other lines.
The world has changed. He said there is no going back.
We are going to be fighting for a long time, this is not going to be a short fight. He said that this is the biggest challenge Europe has faced since World War II.
Analysts agree that the best outcome for the country would be the withdrawal of the Russian armed forces.
The analysts at the Scowcroft Center said that in a scenario where the conflict ends, Ukraine could see its own defensive capabilities strengthened by NATO.
The determination and skill of the Ukrainian resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favors the defenders in this scenario.
The analysts said that the Kremlin will pay a high price for its invasion of Ukraine and will face a long and costly battle.
Even if NATO is faced with an improved security situation, it could still befraught with danger.
The short war has claimed thousands of lives on both sides and left them bitter. Although a democratic Ukraine emerges intact if not unscathed, its still-dangerous neighbor faces an uncertain future with the Russian political landscape at a tipping point. Whether the country leans toward greater authoritarianism under Putin, or away from him altogether, will largely determine how Russia behaves with the rest of the world.
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