According to a study published Monday, the Amazon rainforest is losing its ability to recover and could be irretrievably transitioned into a savannah, with dire consequences for the region and the world.
Researchers warned that the results mean the Amazon could be approaching a tipping point faster than they had thought.
Researchers measured for the first time the resilience of the Amazon against shocks such as fires and droughts, a key indicator of overall health.
They reported in Nature Climate Change that this has declined across more than three-quarters of the Amazon basin.
The ability of the forest to bounce back was reduced by half in areas hit hardest by destruction.
He said in an interview that the resilience measure changed by more than a factor of two in places that are close to human activity.
Climate models suggest that global heating could push the Amazon past a point of no return into a far drier savannah.
According to some models, the scenario of carbon pollution could be locked in by the mid-century.
Lenton said that people are busy chopping or burning the forest, which is a second pressure point.
There are concerns that the transition could happen earlier.
The Amazon, ice on the WestAntarctic, and Siberia, as well as monsoon rains in South Asia, coral reef, and the Atlantic ocean current, are all vulnerable to tipping points that could change the world as we know it.
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60 percent of Brazil's rainforest has shifted from a sink to a rainforest.
As the world struggles to curb CO 2 emissions, Terrestrial ecosystems are a crucial ally. Even though emissions have increased, vegetation and soil have absorbed about 30 percent of carbon pollution since 1960.
The Amazon would be hugely disruptive in South America and across the globe.
Global temperatures could go up even faster if 90 billion tonnes of CO 2 stored in its rainforest is released into the atmosphere.
Lenton said that the forests that take a hit are not the only ones.
Data pointing in the same direction is marshaled by the new findings.
Many researchers theorize that a tipping point could be reached.
Our study shows that we are approaching that threshold.
Lenton, Boers, and lead author Chris Boulton analyzed two satellite data sets to assess the resilience of the rainforest.
If too much resilience is lost, dieback may become inevitable, but that won't be obvious until the major event that tips the system is over.
There is a chance that the Amazon could be saved.
Lenton said that the rainforest has a lot of resilience because it weathered the ice ages.
If you could bring the temperature back down again even after the tipping point, you might be able to save the situation.
Massive carbon dioxide removal, orgeoengineering, which has its own risks, still puts you in this situation.
The Amazon rainforest has been degraded or destroyed since 1970, mostly for the production of lumber and soy.
Agence France-Presse
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