Higher risk of temperature-related death if global warming exceeds 2 C

The death rate linked to extreme temperatures will increase under global warming, according to a report by researchers from the University of Reading.

In England and Wales, where a death is directly linked to climate temperature, it will increase by 42% under a warming scenario. The 10 hottest days of the year averaged 166 deaths per day, an increase from present-day levels of around 117 deaths per day. The importance of keeping global warming levels below 2 degrees C is underscored by the findings.

At current global warming levels, we see a slight decrease in temperature-related mortality in winter and a minimal net effect in summer, meaning that overall, at this level of warming, we see a slight decrease in temperature-related mortality rate.

The team looked at the impact of climate change on temperature-related mortality rates in England and Wales, focusing on the risk from heat in summer and cold in winter. As the global mean temperature increases, they found that temperature-related mortality will increase at a much faster rate.

The rate of increase increases at 2C, with a much higher risk appearing beyond 2.5C.

When plotted on a graph, the relationship between temperature and mortality is roughly U-shaped, meaning that at extremely high temperatures, which the population is not used to, the mortality risk increases sharply for each degree rise of daily mean temperature.

The rate in winter will continue to decrease, although this doesn't take into account the side effects of extreme weather.

The increase in mortality risk under current warming levels is mainly notable during heatwaves, but with further warming, we would see risk rise on average summer days in addition to escalating. We shouldn't expect past trends of impact per degree of warming to apply in the future. One degree of global warming beyond 2 degreesC would have a much more severe impact on health in England and Wales than one degree of warming from pre-industrial levels.

9% of all deaths in England and Wales could be associated with the temperature, meaning that it could be a factor in many deaths. The deaths are related to cold weather.

The team used data on temperature and mortality to predict changes in temperature and mortality relative to global warming in the UK Climate Projections.

The researchers looked at the potential impact for the current population without taking into account future changes such as age and health conditions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts report recently showed how different levels of mean global warming raise the risk of significant harm to people and society. Our study shows that limiting the average global rise in temperatures is likely to have benefits for the health of the population because death rates will go up if countries experience very high temperatures.

More information: Wan Ting Katty Huang et al, Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales, Environmental Research Letters (2022). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5 Journal information: Environmental Research Letters Citation: Higher risk of temperature-related death if global warming exceeds 2 C (2022, March 7) retrieved 7 March 2022 from https://phys.org/news/2022-03-higher-temperature-related-death-global.html This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.